A high-quality infrastructure-software franchise with a wide economic moat, 148% free cash flow conversion, and rising earnings estimates is caught in a confirmed technical downtrend following a death cross — the quality and fundamental case is compelling at 29.4% upside to the analyst target, but entry is premature until momentum conditions clear. Geographic concentration of 59% outside the U.S. adds a risk layer that the fundamentals alone cannot fully offset.
Thesis pillars
- Geographic Concentration Risk→Stable
- High Quality Cash Compounding→Stable
- Momentum Confirmed Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Bentley Systems, Incorporated (BSY) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.43 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside U.S. (59.0%).
Bentley Systems develops infrastructure engineering software across public works/utilities, resources, industrial, and commercial sectors, serving nearly 42,000 accounts in 189 countries. Revenue flows primarily from E365 consumption subscriptions and SELECT perpetual licenses,... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.43 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside U.S. (59.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Bentley Systems, Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS Bentley Systems (BSY) Surges 3.12% as Infrastructure Software Sector Gains Momentum - Island Reversal - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et positive
- NEWS Bentley Systems (BSY) Surges 3.12% as Infrastructure Software Sector Gains Momentum - Equal Weight ETF - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et positive
- NEWS Bentley Systems (BSY) Achieves FedRAMP Authorization for Cloud S - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Teachers Retirement System of The State of Kentucky Makes New $1.72 Million Investment in Bentley Systems, Incorporated — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS What shapes market opinion on Bentley (BSY) stock | Bentley posts 2.5% EPS beat on strong core demand - Earnings Growth — newsline.com positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicoutside U.S.59%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 59%, 58%, and 58% of our total revenues were from outside the U.S. for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'
- LOWGeographicAPAC including China18%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 18% of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023 relate to infrastructure projects in APAC, including China.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.43 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside U.S. (59.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $37.27. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $40.14 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $37.27. Stop-loss: $37.27.
Concentration risk — Geographic: outside U.S. (59.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Bentley Systems, Incorporated trades at a P/E of 43.3 (forward 25.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover BSY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $45.
What does Bentley Systems, Incorporated do?Bentley Systems develops infrastructure engineering software across public works/utilities, resources, industrial, and...
Bentley Systems develops infrastructure engineering software across public works/utilities, resources, industrial, and commercial sectors, serving nearly 42,000 accounts in 189 countries. Revenue flows primarily from E365 consumption subscriptions and SELECT perpetual licenses, with direct sales generating approximately 94% of 2025 revenues.