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SAFESafehold Inc. NewSell5.3·$16.12+3.07%
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Safehold Inc. New (SAFE) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.12 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Safehold Inc. is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Having created the modern ground lease industry in 2017, Safehold continues to help owners of high quality multifamily,... Read more

$16.12+1.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#5 of 7 REIT - Diversified
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-27.09%
IncomeYield4.53%(5y avg 3.05%)Payout44.81%
Stop $15.27Target $16.29(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$18.73+16.2%11 analysts
$16.29our TP
$16.12price
$18.73mean
$14
$28

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.12 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Margin of safety: 34%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.9
P/E (Fwd)9.0
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA17.2
Profit Mgn27.4%
ROE4.7%
Rev Growth11.9%
Beta1.83
Dividend4.53%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV92%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.9
Gap
5.0
52w Position
9.5
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
76 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.13Resistance $16.32

Price Targets

$15
$16
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.1% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAFE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.12 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.27. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the SAFE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.29 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $15.27. Stop-loss: $15.27.

What are the risks of investing in SAFE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0.

Is SAFE overvalued or undervalued?

Safehold Inc. New trades at a P/E of 9.9 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SAFE?

17 analysts cover SAFE with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Safehold Inc. New do?Safehold Inc. is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value...

Safehold Inc. is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Having created the modern ground lease industry in 2017, Safehold continues to help owners of high quality multifamily, affordable housing, office, industrial, hospitality, student housing, life science and mixed-use properties generate higher returns with less risk. The Company, which is taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT), seeks to deliver safe, growing income and long-term capital appreciation to its shareholders. Safehold Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is based in New York, United States.

Related stocks: BNL (Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.) · AAT (American Assets Trust, Inc.) · ESRT (Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.) · GNL (Global Net Lease, Inc.)
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