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Safehold Inc. New (SAFE) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

Sell if holding. At $15.26, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Weak growth.

Safehold Inc. is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Having created the modern ground lease industry in 2017, Safehold continues to help owners of high quality multifamily,... Read more

$15.26+11.6% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#5 of 7 REIT - Diversified
Stop $14.50Target $17.08(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$19.64+28.7%11 analysts
$17.08our TP
$15.26price
$19.64mean
$28

Sell if holding. At $15.26, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Weak growth. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Margin of safety: 33%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0
Weak growth
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.1
P/E (Fwd)9.0
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA17.0
Profit Mgn28.3%
ROE4.8%
Rev Growth5.7%
Beta1.85
Dividend4.42%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish
IV40%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.1
Revenue Growth
3.9
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.17Resistance $16.25

Price Targets

$15
$17
A.Upside+11.9%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAFE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $15.26, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Weak growth. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $14.50. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SAFE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.08 (+11.6% upside). Prior stop was $14.50. Stop-loss: $14.50.

What are the risks of investing in SAFE?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Weak growth; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Negative free cash flow.

Is SAFE overvalued or undervalued?

Safehold Inc. New trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SAFE?

17 analysts cover SAFE with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Safehold Inc. New do?Safehold Inc. is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value...

Safehold Inc. is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Having created the modern ground lease industry in 2017, Safehold continues to help owners of high quality multifamily, affordable housing, office, industrial, hospitality, student housing, life science and mixed-use properties generate higher returns with less risk. The Company, which is taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT), seeks to deliver safe, growing income and long-term capital appreciation to its shareholders. Safehold Inc. was incorporated in 2016 in Maryland, USA.

Related stocks: AAT (American Assets Trust, Inc.) · ESRT (Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.) · BNL (Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.) · GNL (Global Net Lease, Inc.)