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BMRCBank of Marin BancorpSell5.4·$28.05-1.27%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Bank of Marin shows unusually strong 25% growth for a regional bank, but sub-floor quality, a negative-asymmetry setup after reaching its price target, and a flagged yield trap leave the risk/reward unattractive at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Floor No MoatStable
  • Negative Asymmetry Target ReachedStable
  • Strong Growth Despite Quality ConcernsStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.05: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality.

Bank of Marin Bancorp is the holding company for Bank of Marin, a California state-chartered community bank operating 27 retail branches and 8 commercial banking offices across nine Northern California counties, with the majority of deposits concentrated in Marin, Napa, Alameda,... Read more

$28.05+6.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#191 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.51%(5y avg 4.11%)Payout161.29%at-risk
Stop $26.19Target $29.73(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$28.80+2.7%5 analysts
$29.73our TP
$28.05price
$28.80mean
$26
$31

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.05: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Bank of Marin Bancorp

About Bank of Marin Bancorp

Bank of Marin Bancorp concentrates its deposit base in Northern California, with the majority of deposits held in Marin, Napa, Alameda, and southern Sonoma counties across 27 retail branches and 8 commercial banking offices as of December 31, 2025. Business relationships supplied approximately 62% of deposits versus 38% from consumers, and the bank employed 311 full-time equivalent staff, regulated by the DFPI and the FDIC.

Bank of Marin earns net interest income by funding commercial real estate, commercial and industrial, construction, and consumer loans through core deposits gathered across its business-banking focus on small to medium-sized businesses, not-for-profits, and commercial real estate investors. The bank supplements interest income with wealth management and trust services, including investment portfolio management, trust administration, and estate settlement, and offers CDARS, ICS, and DDM Sweep deposit products that extend FDIC coverage above regulatory limits by spreading deposits across partner-network banks. Beyond core deposits, funding sources include Federal Home Loan Bank and Federal Reserve Bank borrowings and brokered deposits, with total available borrowing capacity of $2.148 billion as of December 31, 2025. The bank competes against nationwide banks with larger branch networks and greater technology resources, positioning itself instead on relationship banking and local decision-making across its Northern California footprint.

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Bank of Marin's funding carries two compounding concentration risks beyond its business-deposit base: uninsured and/or uncollateralized deposits stood at an estimated 31% of total deposits as of December 31, 2025, and the bank's top ten depositor relationships accounted for approximately 12% of total deposit balances, up from 9% a year earlier. In February 2026, the company also disclosed a material weakness in internal controls after determining that reciprocal network deposits had been misclassified as non-interest bearing, triggering a restatement of 2023 and 2024 financial statements and several 2024-2025 quarterly periods.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From Bank of Marin Bancorp's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 27, 202619d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: business deposits (62.0%)
Target reached (-10.7% upside)
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)11.9
Mkt Cap$461M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn-90.7%
ROE-7.7%
Rev Growth25.3%
Beta0.79
Dividend3.51%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV89%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicMarin, Napa, Alameda and southern Sonoma counties
    10-K Item 1: 'the majority of our deposits were in Marin, Napa, Alameda and southern Sonoma counties'
  • HIGHloan_portfoliobusiness deposits62%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 62% of our deposits were from businesses and 38% from consumers.'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliouninsured and/or uncollateralized deposits31%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we maintain a well-diversified deposit base, with an estimated 31% of uninsured and/or uncollateralized deposits as of December 31, 2025.'
  • LOWloan_portfoliotop ten depositor relationships12%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top ten depositor relationships accounted for approximately 12% and 9% of total deposit balances at December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -90.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Moat
4.8
Piotroski F
5.6
Operating Margin
10.0
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.1
Value Rank
0.1
Growth Rank
7.4
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
70 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $25.44Resistance $30.34

Price Targets

$26
$30
A.Upside+6.0%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BMRC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.05: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $26.19. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BMRC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.73 (+6.0% upside). Prior stop was $26.19. Stop-loss: $26.19.

What are the risks of investing in BMRC?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: business deposits (62.0%); Target reached (-10.7% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is BMRC overvalued or undervalued?

Bank of Marin Bancorp trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BMRC?

12 analysts cover BMRC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Bank of Marin Bancorp do?Bank of Marin Bancorp is the holding company for Bank of Marin, a California state-chartered community bank operating...

Bank of Marin Bancorp is the holding company for Bank of Marin, a California state-chartered community bank operating 27 retail branches and 8 commercial banking offices across nine Northern California counties, with the majority of deposits concentrated in Marin, Napa, Alameda, and southern Sonoma counties. The bank serves small to medium-sized businesses, not-for-profits, and individuals, drawing approximately 62% of deposits from business customers and 38% from consumers, with 311 full-time equivalent employees as of December 31, 2025.

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