Value
4.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 1.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
BMRC · Why this verdict
Why Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality sits below the engine's 4.0 floor at 2.9, with the engine citing no competitive moat and outright quality concerns for the regional bank. Bear case | Quality should rise above 4.0 over the next 12 months for the exit signal to reverse. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bank still posted 25% YoY growth, which is unusually strong for a regional bank and could support quality metrics recovering as growth normalizes into profitability. | ||
The stock has already reached its resistance-based target with -11.9% modeled upside, producing a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.06 that failed the engine's gate. Targets | A fresh resistance level would need to open at least 10% of upside relative to the 6.3% downside for the risk/reward to turn positive again over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum at 7.0, clearing the engine's 5.5 threshold, could carry the stock through resistance to establish a new, higher target. | ||
The bank posted 25% YoY growth, a standout figure that sits in tension with the otherwise weak 2.9 quality score. Growth breakdown | Growth should remain above 15% YoY over the next 12 months while quality metrics catch up to validate the growth is sustainable rather than one-off. | →Stable |
| CounterA growth spike this large at a regional bank can reflect one-time items like loan portfolio acquisitions rather than durable organic expansion. | ||
The options market shows an elevated put/call ratio of 2.00 alongside high implied volatility of 87%, signaling traders are positioning defensively. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should fall back toward 1.0 or below over the next 12 months if bearish options positioning is unwinding. | →Stable |
| CounterA put/call ratio this high on a smaller regional bank can reflect thin options liquidity distorting the ratio rather than genuine broad-based bearish conviction. | ||
The engine flags a yield trap warning on the dividend, noting the yield appears high but unsafe given the underlying quality concerns. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend safety component should rise above 6.0 out of 10 over the next 12 months for the yield trap warning to clear. | →Stable |
| CounterModest insider buying of $5,136 in the past 90 days, while small, is at least a bullish signal rather than a red flag on capital allocation. | ||
Quality sits below the engine's 4.0 floor at 2.9, with the engine citing no competitive moat and outright quality concerns for the regional bank.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quality should rise above 4.0 over the next 12 months for the exit signal to reverse.
CounterThe bank still posted 25% YoY growth, which is unusually strong for a regional bank and could support quality metrics recovering as growth normalizes into profitability.
The stock has already reached its resistance-based target with -11.9% modeled upside, producing a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.06 that failed the engine's gate.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- A fresh resistance level would need to open at least 10% of upside relative to the 6.3% downside for the risk/reward to turn positive again over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong momentum at 7.0, clearing the engine's 5.5 threshold, could carry the stock through resistance to establish a new, higher target.
The bank posted 25% YoY growth, a standout figure that sits in tension with the otherwise weak 2.9 quality score.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth should remain above 15% YoY over the next 12 months while quality metrics catch up to validate the growth is sustainable rather than one-off.
CounterA growth spike this large at a regional bank can reflect one-time items like loan portfolio acquisitions rather than durable organic expansion.
The options market shows an elevated put/call ratio of 2.00 alongside high implied volatility of 87%, signaling traders are positioning defensively.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should fall back toward 1.0 or below over the next 12 months if bearish options positioning is unwinding.
CounterA put/call ratio this high on a smaller regional bank can reflect thin options liquidity distorting the ratio rather than genuine broad-based bearish conviction.
The engine flags a yield trap warning on the dividend, noting the yield appears high but unsafe given the underlying quality concerns.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend safety component should rise above 6.0 out of 10 over the next 12 months for the yield trap warning to clear.
CounterModest insider buying of $5,136 in the past 90 days, while small, is at least a bullish signal rather than a red flag on capital allocation.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bank of Marin shows unusually strong 25% growth for a regional bank, but sub-floor quality, a negative-asymmetry setup after reaching its price target, and a flagged yield trap leave the risk/reward unattractive at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
9.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 25% YoY
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.3 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $5,136 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.1 |
| quality rank | 0.1 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 2.6 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 89%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 3.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.15
Upside
-10.7%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 9.4 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.4, Insider at 6.7, and Sentiment at 5.7; the weakest are Quality at 2.9, Peer rank at 3.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor No Moat
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.9.
- P2Negative Asymmetry Target Reached
Trip ifUpside to a revised target exceeds 10% while downside stays under 6.3%.
- P3Strong Growth Despite Quality Concerns
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY, undercutting the current 25% growth rate.
- P4Elevated Put Call Bearish Options
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 from the current 2.00.
- P5Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifDividend safety score rises above 6.0 from the current 3.5.