Business quality sits at the minimum acceptable floor with no identifiable competitive moat, free cash flow is deeply negative, revenue is in decline, and the dividend yield appears unsafe — the fundamental picture argues for an exit rather than additional exposure despite constructive near-term technical momentum.
Thesis pillars
- Deeply Negative Free Cash Flow→Stable
- Quality At Minimum Floor No Moat↓Deteriorating
- Revenue In Contraction→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Black Hills Corporation (BKH) Stock Analysis
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Sell if holding. At $71.30, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).
Black Hills Corporation provides regulated electric service to approximately 227,000 customers in Colorado, Montana, South Dakota, and Wyoming, and regulated natural gas service to 1,138,000 customers across six states. The company earns authorized cost-of-service returns with... Read more
Sell if holding. At $71.30, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Black Hills Corporation
About Black Hills Corporation
Black Hills Corporation served 1,138,000 natural gas customers across six states and 227,000 electric customers across four states at December 31, 2025, with owned generation of 1,386 MW spanning coal, natural gas, wind, and diesel assets. An all-stock merger with NorthWestern, announced August 18, 2025 and subject to FERC, SDPUC, and other approvals, would create a combined entity serving approximately 0.7 million electric and 1.5 million gas customers across eight states.
Black Hills earns regulated returns under cost-of-service ratemaking overseen by eight state utility commissions and FERC. The Electric Utilities generated power from a mix of 25.5% coal, 29.3% natural gas, and 7.4% wind in 2025, with 37.8% purchased power filling the remainder. The captive WRDC coal mine in the Powder River Basin produced 3.3 million tons in 2025 at $1.26/MMBtu, substantially below the purchased power average of $51/MWh, and holds approximately 172 million tons of recoverable reserves—roughly 51 years at current production. Authorized equity returns ranged from 9.30% for Colorado Electric to 9.90% for South Dakota Electric (Wyoming jurisdiction), with recovery mechanisms including energy cost adjustments, transmission cost adjustments, and purchased capacity cost adjustments allowing pass-through of fuel costs between rate cases. The Gas Utilities segment distributes through 4,581 miles of intrastate pipeline and 44,840 miles of distribution mains across Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Wyoming.
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Coal's share of generated power fell from 35.0% in 2023 to 25.5% in 2025 while wind and solar purchases rose from 5.6% to 14.9% over the same period, reflecting a gradual fuel mix transition. Colorado regulations could require acceleration of clean energy expenditures and reduced output from natural gas-fired units depending on final Colorado Clean Energy Plan requirements. The company targets acquisition of a battery storage facility as part of this plan, alongside the Lange II generation project, both representing material capital commitments subject to regulatory cost recovery approval.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
From Black Hills Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — Black Hills Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Black Hills: Plug Your Portfolio Into Strong Utility Returns (NYSE:BKH) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Black Hills (BKH) Expected to Announce Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Black Hills (BKH) Announces Quarterly Dividend of $0.703 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS BMO Capital Highlights Hyperscaler Opportunity for Black Hills (BKH) - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey positive
- NEWS BMO Capital Highlights Hyperscaler Opportunity for Black Hills (BKH) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-09-14T06:36:55Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCommoditynatural gas power supply29%10-K Item 1: 'power supply by resource as a percent of the total power supply ... Natural Gas | | 29.3 | %'
- MEDIUMCommoditycoal power supply26%10-K Item 1: 'power supply by resource as a percent of the total power supply ... Coal | | 25.5 | %'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $71.30, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $69.06. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $73.60 (+3.2% upside). Prior stop was $69.06. Stop-loss: $69.06.
Thin upside margin: 3.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
Black Hills Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover BKH with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $85.
What does Black Hills Corporation do?Black Hills Corporation provides regulated electric service to approximately 227,000 customers in Colorado, Montana,...
Black Hills Corporation provides regulated electric service to approximately 227,000 customers in Colorado, Montana, South Dakota, and Wyoming, and regulated natural gas service to 1,138,000 customers across six states. The company earns authorized cost-of-service returns with equity ROEs of 9.30%–9.90% overseen by eight state utility commissions and FERC; a proposed all-stock merger with NorthWestern was announced August 18, 2025.