BJRI shows excellent cash conversion and a solid earnings beat streak, but its quality score sits below the engine's floor, its valuation target has already been reached with a negative modeled asymmetry, and insiders have been notable net sellers.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Floor Despite Strong Cash Conversion→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak With Catalyst↓Deteriorating
- Target Reached Negative Asymmetry→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $60.51: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality.
BJ's Restaurants operates 219 full-service restaurants across 31 states as of February 27, 2026, featuring a roughly 90-item menu built around deep-dish pizza, large-format entrees, and craft beer brewed at four in-house breweries and two standalone brewpubs. The company employs... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $60.51: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 3/8 gates (positive momentum, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — BJ's Restaurants, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Citigroup Lowers Price Target for BJ's Restaurants — fiscal.ai Oct 24, 2026 negative
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Neutral on BJ's Restaurants, Lowers Price Target to $70 — benzinga Oct 23, 2026 negative
- NEWS This United Therapeutics Analyst Turns Bullish; Here Are Top 5 Upgrades For Thursday — benzinga Oct 1, 2026 positive
- NEWS Mizuho Upgrades BJ's Restaurants to Outperform, Raises Price Target to $76 — benzinga Oct 1, 2026 positive
- NEWS Under the Radar: 4 Stocks Where Insiders and Management Are Buying — benzinga Sep 15, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Texas, and Florida10-K Item 1A: 'a significant number of our restaurants are concentrated in California, Texas and Florida'
- HIGHSuppliersingle malt supplier10-K Item 1A: 'We purchase a majority of our malts from a single supplier with multiple sources of malts.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-23Item 5.02LOWBoard approved increased non-employee director compensation effective June 17, 2026, including a $5,000 increase to the annual cash retainer (to $80,000) and a $15,000 increase to the annual restricted stock unit award (to $140,000), plus higher committee retainer fees. Routine compensation update; no personnel change.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOWAshley A. Van appointed Senior Vice President and Principal Accounting Officer effective May 11, 2026. Routine officer appointment; no predecessor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $60.51: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $56.27. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $65.00 (+7.4% upside). Prior stop was $56.27. Stop-loss: $56.27.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single malt supplier; Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.4 (forward 22.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover BJRI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $75.
What does BJ's Restaurants, Inc. do?BJ's Restaurants operates 219 full-service restaurants across 31 states as of February 27, 2026, featuring a roughly...
BJ's Restaurants operates 219 full-service restaurants across 31 states as of February 27, 2026, featuring a roughly 90-item menu built around deep-dish pizza, large-format entrees, and craft beer brewed at four in-house breweries and two standalone brewpubs. The company employs approximately 22,000 team members and competes in the fragmented $100+ billion full-service restaurant segment, with menu prices generally ranging from $8.99 to $35.99. A significant number of BJ's restaurants are concentrated in California, Texas, and Florida.