Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.7 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.5 |
| PEG | 9.4 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.60
BHP · Why this verdict
Why BHP Group (BHP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.2 |
| ROA | 8.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.5 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 79% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 7.5 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 4.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 2.0 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.5 |
| quality rank | 9.2 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.7 |
| days to cover | 4.1 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| put call | 7.0 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:63d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.79
Upside
-33.5%
Downside
12.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5. Top dim: Quality at 8.2; weakest: Catalyst at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.2, Value at 6.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.6, Sentiment at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.79 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.