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Axos Financial, Inc. (AX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $93.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Elevated risk factors.

Axos Financial is a technology-driven financial services company with ~$24.8 billion in assets, operating Axos Bank (digital banking with consumer/commercial mortgages and C&I loans nationwide) and Axos Clearing and Axos Invest (securities custody, clearing, and advisory).... Read more

$93.16+2.1% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#70 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $86.88Target $95.27(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$109.50+17.5%6 analysts
$95.27our TP
$93.16price
$109.50mean
$115

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $93.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.2
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn36.0%
ROE16.8%
Rev Growth19.3%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.70bearish
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$40-57.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia and New York
    10-K Item 1A: 'given our high concentration of loans secured by real estate in California and New York, the Company remains particularly susceptible to a downturn in those states' economies'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $84.91Resistance $99.93

Price Targets

$87
$95
A.Upside+2.3%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.1% upside)
! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $93.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $95.27 (+2.3%), stop $86.88 (−7.2%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $95.27 (+2.1% upside). Target $95.27 (+2.3%), stop $86.88 (−7.2%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $86.88.

What are the risks of investing in AX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Elevated risk factors.

Is AX overvalued or undervalued?

Axos Financial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.2 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AX?

14 analysts cover AX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $110.

What does Axos Financial, Inc. do?Axos Financial is a technology-driven financial services company with ~$24.8 billion in assets, operating Axos Bank...

Axos Financial is a technology-driven financial services company with ~$24.8 billion in assets, operating Axos Bank (digital banking with consumer/commercial mortgages and C&I loans nationwide) and Axos Clearing and Axos Invest (securities custody, clearing, and advisory). Revenue comes from net interest income on its diversified loan portfolio and fee-based securities and investment services.

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