An attractively valued regional bank with three beats in the last four quarters and strong margins of 36% trades at a forward multiple of roughly 9 times earnings, but an extreme put/call ratio of 8.48 and a most-recent earnings miss of 10.8% warrant caution despite the favorable valuation signal.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation Strong Margins→Stable
- Extreme Bearish Options Positioning↓Deteriorating
- Recent Earnings Miss Breaks Streak→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Aug 20, 2026
Axos Financial, Inc. (AX) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Wait for pullback to $89.01. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $91.48. Engine's entry $89.01 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
Axos Financial is a technology-driven bank and securities group with approximately $30.0 billion in assets and $47.8 billion of assets under custody or administration at Axos Clearing. Its Banking segment offers digital deposits and single family, multifamily, commercial real... Read more
Wait for pullback to $89.01. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $91.48. Engine's entry $89.01 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Axos Financial, Inc.
About Axos Financial, Inc.
Axos Financial reported approximately $30.0 billion in assets and $47.8 billion of assets under custody or administration at Axos Clearing LLC, per its fiscal 2026 10-K. The company runs two segments: Banking, through Axos Bank, a federal savings association supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and insured by the FDIC, and Securities, which served about 300 financial organizations at June 30, 2026. It employed 2,191 full-time workers and sources deposits nationwide through digital channels rather than a branch network.
Axos Bank earns net interest income on single family mortgages and warehouse lines, multifamily and commercial mortgages, commercial real estate loans, commercial & industrial loans such as lender finance, asset-based and capital call facilities, plus auto and consumer loans. Commercial real estate and commercial & industrial loans are typically variable rate based on SOFR, with prepayment protection, floors and caps. Non-interest income comes from loan sale fees, operating lease income, deposit service fees and payment processing fees. Deposits come from commercial verticals such as title, escrow, HOA and 1031 exchange, from software businesses including Axos Fiduciary Services and Zenith Information Systems, and from consumer and sweep deposits tied to Axos Clearing and Axos Advisor Services. The Securities segment earns fee and interest income from clearing, stock lending, margin lending, custody for registered investment advisors and the Axos Invest retail platform. Competitors range from savings banks, commercial banks and mortgage bankers to private equity firms and hedge funds, and large national broker-dealers in clearing.
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Geographic concentration of collateral is the clearest exposure in the filing. The 10-K states that Axos has a high concentration of loans secured by real estate in California and New York, which leaves the company particularly susceptible to a downturn in those economies, and that a sustained slowdown could raise non-performing loans and leases. Multifamily and commercial real estate underwriting relies primarily on property cash flow, and the company often obtains personal guarantees. Regulatory capital rules also remain in flux: the Federal Reserve, OCC and FDIC issued three joint notices of proposed rulemaking in March 2026 on how regulatory capital is calculated.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Axos Financial, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Axos Financial, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Axos Financial to announce Q1FY27 results on October 29, 2026 - scanx.trade — scanx.trade neutral
- NEWS Axos Financial (NYSE:AX) Signals Stronger Momentum - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media positive
- NEWS Axos Financial Earnings: What To Look For From AX - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Axos Financial Earnings: What To Look For From AX - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Axos Financial Earnings: What To Look For From AX - tradingview.com — tradingview.com neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:24Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia and New York real estate loans10-K Item 1A: 'given our high concentration of loans secured by real estate in California and New York'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $89.01. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $91.48. Engine's entry $89.01 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Target $102.41 (+11.9%), stop $85.29 (−7.3%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $102.41 (+11.9% upside). Target $102.41 (+11.9%), stop $85.29 (−7.3%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $85.29.
Axos Financial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.8 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
15 analysts cover AX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $118.
What does Axos Financial, Inc. do?Axos Financial is a technology-driven bank and securities group with approximately $30.0 billion in assets and $47.8...
Axos Financial is a technology-driven bank and securities group with approximately $30.0 billion in assets and $47.8 billion of assets under custody or administration at Axos Clearing. Its Banking segment offers digital deposits and single family, multifamily, commercial real estate, commercial & industrial and auto loans nationwide, while the Securities segment provides clearing and custody to about 300 financial organizations including RIAs and broker-dealers.