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AXAxos Financial, Inc.Hold6.2·$89.26+1.02%
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Axos Financial, Inc. (AX) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $89.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California and New York real estate loans; Thin upside margin: 7.4%.

Axos Financial is a diversified digital financial services company with approximately $24.8 billion in assets and $39.4 billion in assets under custody through Axos Clearing. Axos Bank offers consumer and commercial banking products nationwide via digital/mobile platforms,... Read more

$89.26+7.4% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#37 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
Stop $85.00Target $95.85(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$110.17+23.4%6 analysts
$95.85our TP
$89.26price
$110.17mean
$114

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $89.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California and New York real estate loans; Thin upside margin: 7.4%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California and New York real estate loans
Thin upside margin: 7.4%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.8
P/E (Fwd)9.1
Mkt Cap$5.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn36.0%
ROE16.8%
Rev Growth19.3%
Beta1.25
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C7.91bearish
IV49%normal
Max Pain$70-21.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia and New York real estate loans
    10-K Item 1A: 'given our high concentration of loans secured by real estate in California and New York, the Company remains particularly susceptible to a downturn in those states' economies.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.0
Support Resistance
2.4
52w Position
7.5
GatesA.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $82.14Resistance $91.52

Price Targets

$85
$96
A.Upside+7.4%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $89.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California and New York real estate loans; Thin upside margin: 7.4%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $95.85 (+7.4%), stop $85.00 (−5.0%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $95.85 (+7.4% upside). Target $95.85 (+7.4%), stop $85.00 (−5.0%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Stop-loss: $85.00.

What are the risks of investing in AX?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California and New York real estate loans; Thin upside margin: 7.4%.

Is AX overvalued or undervalued?

Axos Financial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.8 (forward 9.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AX?

14 analysts cover AX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $110.

What does Axos Financial, Inc. do?Axos Financial is a diversified digital financial services company with approximately $24.8 billion in assets and $39.4...

Axos Financial is a diversified digital financial services company with approximately $24.8 billion in assets and $39.4 billion in assets under custody through Axos Clearing. Axos Bank offers consumer and commercial banking products nationwide via digital/mobile platforms, including mortgages, CRE loans, C&I loans, and deposits; the Securities Business Segment provides clearing and advisory services to broker-dealers and RIAs.

Related stocks: IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation) · GABC (German American Bancorp, Inc.) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · BFC (Bank First Corporation)
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