Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.1 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
AVEX · Why this verdict
Why AEVEX (AVEX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AEVEX is a defense name growing revenue about 100% YoY at a PEG of 0.07 with 107% analyst-implied upside, but it is down 74% from its high with negative momentum and below-average quality.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is below average, with a quality score of 4.6, thin margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 5.6. Bear case | Operating margin improves from its low level as scale builds. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThin margins leave little cushion for contract delays or cost overruns, and debt-to-equity risk adds to the pressure. | ||
Growth is strong at 100% YoY, with revenue and earnings growth both scoring 10/10 and an industry growth leader rank. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 30% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDefense growth at 100% likely reflects acquisitions or contract lumpiness and may not repeat on a larger base. | ||
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 15.7x and a PEG of 0.07. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth holds so the PEG remains below 1.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA very low PEG is a function of a one-off growth spike; if growth normalizes, the multiple looks less compelling. | ||
Momentum is negative at 2.3/10 with falling on-balance volume, with the stock about 74% off its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price stabilizes and on-balance volume turns upward over the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 74% drawdown with ongoing volume distribution suggests unresolved problems the market has not yet priced fully. | ||
The price of $10.83 sits 107.3% below the analyst target of $22.45, with reward-to-risk of 7.15 against 15.0% downside. Targets | Price closes a meaningful share of the gap to the target as earnings are reported in 18 days. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCoverage is light, and analyst targets after a 74% drawdown often lag; the stock could reach the $10.07 stop first. | ||
Business quality is below average, with a quality score of 4.6, thin margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 5.6.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Operating margin improves from its low level as scale builds.
CounterThin margins leave little cushion for contract delays or cost overruns, and debt-to-equity risk adds to the pressure.
Growth is strong at 100% YoY, with revenue and earnings growth both scoring 10/10 and an industry growth leader rank.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 30% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterDefense growth at 100% likely reflects acquisitions or contract lumpiness and may not repeat on a larger base.
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 15.7x and a PEG of 0.07.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth holds so the PEG remains below 1.0.
CounterA very low PEG is a function of a one-off growth spike; if growth normalizes, the multiple looks less compelling.
Momentum is negative at 2.3/10 with falling on-balance volume, with the stock about 74% off its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stabilizes and on-balance volume turns upward over the next two quarters.
CounterA 74% drawdown with ongoing volume distribution suggests unresolved problems the market has not yet priced fully.
The price of $10.83 sits 107.3% below the analyst target of $22.45, with reward-to-risk of 7.15 against 15.0% downside.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Price closes a meaningful share of the gap to the target as earnings are reported in 18 days.
CounterCoverage is light, and analyst targets after a 74% drawdown often lag; the stock could reach the $10.07 stop first.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 1.1 |
| Op margin | 4.1 |
| Net margin | 3.3 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 100% YoY
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 4.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 112%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.8 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 93%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:5.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
5.61
Upside
+84.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -71% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 5.61 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.9, Technical at 4.2, and Quality at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hypergrowth Defense Contractor
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% YoY from the current 100%.
- P2Cheap On Growth Adjusted Basis
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 25x from the current 15.7x.
- P3Deep Drawdown Weak Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the $10.07 stop level from the current $10.83.
- P4Below Average Quality
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 3% from the current level.
- P5Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $15 from the current $22.45.