Value
9.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
AVAH · Why this verdict
Why Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (AVAH) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.6 |
| Op margin | 4.5 |
| Net margin | 5.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 2.5 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 368%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 32% FCF/NI
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.9 |
| OBV | 4.1 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=3)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $124,764,115 (8.577% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 9.8 |
| growth rank | 8.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 8.6 |
| 52w position | 2.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.6 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 100%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.66
Upside
+30.9%
Downside
11.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 24, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.93>1.3, MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.66 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.2, Sentiment at 8.1, and Catalyst at 7.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.8, Insider at 3.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.