Alphatec Holdings presents an unusual combination: three consecutive reported earnings beats with over 130% average positive surprise, a PEG ratio of 0.08, more than 75% upside to analyst targets, and positive free cash flow despite GAAP losses — but an extreme put-to-call ratio of 23.50, a confirmed declining long-term price trend, and a high-severity supplier concentration risk temper near-term conviction, warranting a cautious watch rather than immediate entry.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Positive Quality Signal→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak Execution↑Improving
- Deep Value Large Analyst Upside↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026
Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (ATEC) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup · Inst Constrain edge
Healthcare · Medical Devices
Wait for pullback to $10.66. At $11.45 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $10.66 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Invibio; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0).
Alphatec Holdings designs and sells spine surgery implants, instruments, biologics, and informatics technology exclusively for the spine market, generating $764.2 million in total revenue for fiscal 2025 — a 25% increase over 2024. Products are sold through a network of... Read more
Wait for pullback to $10.66. At $11.45 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $10.66 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Invibio; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Alphatec Holdings, Inc.
About Alphatec Holdings, Inc.
Alphatec Holdings generated $764.2 million in total revenue for fiscal 2025, a 25% increase from $611.6 million in 2024, with surgical volume growing 22% and average revenue per surgery expanding 4%. Net sales of systems that include polyaxial pedicle screws represented 38% of total revenue, down from 40% in 2024. The company's flagship procedure, Prone TransPsoas (PTP), was launched in 2020 and has driven adoption among both lateral-experienced surgeons and new entrants to lateral surgery; complementary Lateral TransPsoas (LTP) and EOS imaging platforms were added in subsequent years. International operations are nascent, with early procedures in Australia and New Zealand beginning in 2022 and the first LTP surgery in Japan completed in late 2024.
Alphatec sells exclusively through a combination of exclusive independent sales agents and direct sales representatives who invoice hospitals after procedures; the go-to-market strategy relies on the "ATEC Experience" educational program that drove 20% growth in the surgeon user base in 2025. All implant manufacturing is outsourced to third-party suppliers; PEEK — a biocompatible plastic used in certain spacers — is sourced from Invibio, one of a limited number of companies approved to distribute PEEK in the U.S. for implantable devices, making Invibio the company's single-source supplier for this material. Competitors include Medtronic (Sofamor Danek), Johnson & Johnson (DePuy Spine), Zimmer Biomet, and Globus Medical, each with substantially greater financial resources.
Show full overview
Alphatec's dependence on Invibio as its single-source PEEK supplier exposes production continuity to a vendor relationship that cannot readily be replaced. The 10-K notes that supply interruptions from this limited or sole-sourced component could materially harm the company's ability to source manufactured products until a new supply source is found, and regulatory re-qualification of an alternative PEEK supplier would require FDA involvement. In May 2026, the company entered a new $300 million senior secured credit facility with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as administrative agent — a refinancing that extended the company's liquidity runway but left the underlying supplier dependency unchanged.
See also: Healthcare · Medical Devices
From Alphatec Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Alphatec Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS ATEC|Alphatec Holdings Inc|Price:9.730|Chg%:+0.080 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS ATEC|Alphatec Holdings Inc|Price:9.670|Chg%:+0.020 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS ATEC|Alphatec Holdings Inc|Price:9.670|Chg%:+0.020 - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com neutral
- NEWS ATEC|Alphatec Holdings Inc|Price:9.730|Chg%:+0.080 - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com neutral
- NEWS Alphatec (NASDAQ:ATEC) Hits New 52-Week Low - Should You Sell? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductpolyaxial pedicle screw systems38%10-K Item 1A: 'Net sales of our systems that include polyaxial pedicle screws represented approximately 38%...our net sales for the years ended December 31, 2025'
- HIGHSupplierInvibio10-K Item 1A: 'in one case on a single source vendor, Invibio, to provide the raw materials used in the production of our products'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-05Item 1.01MEDIUMOn May 1, 2026, Alphatec Holdings entered a senior secured credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as admin agent, providing a $175 million Term Loan A and $125 million revolving credit facility, both maturing May 2031.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-05Item 1.02MEDIUMOn May 1, 2026, Alphatec terminated its prior credit facilities upon entry into the new JPMorgan Chase credit agreement. No specific prior agreement named in available excerpt.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-05Item 2.03LOWOn May 1, 2026, Alphatec Holdings created obligations under a $175 million Term Loan A and $125 million revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., maturing May 2031 subject to springing maturity provisions tied to 2030 convertible notes.SEC filing →
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $10.66. At $11.45 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $10.66 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Invibio; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Target $13.73 (+19.9%), stop $9.91 (−15.5%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $13.73 (+19.9% upside). Target $13.73 (+19.9%), stop $9.91 (−15.5%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Stop-loss: $9.91.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Invibio; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Leverage penalty (D/E 52.4): -1.5.
Alphatec Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 19.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
21 analysts cover ATEC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $16.
What does Alphatec Holdings, Inc. do?Alphatec Holdings designs and sells spine surgery implants, instruments, biologics, and informatics technology...
Alphatec Holdings designs and sells spine surgery implants, instruments, biologics, and informatics technology exclusively for the spine market, generating $764.2 million in total revenue for fiscal 2025 — a 25% increase over 2024. Products are sold through a network of exclusive independent sales agents and direct representatives who invoice hospitals, with polyaxial pedicle screw systems representing 38% of net sales.