The stock offers 17% upside to the analyst target and passing technical momentum, but the business falls below the minimum quality threshold with only 11% of net income converting to free cash flow, and the most recent earnings quarter missed by -35% after three prior consecutive beats — the quality deficit is the dominant concern.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Floor Poor Cash Conversion→Stable
- Analyst Upside With Momentum→Stable
- Beat Streak Broken Most Recent Miss→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.91: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 7.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Astec Industries designs, engineers, manufactures, and services asphalt and concrete road-building equipment plus materials-processing and forestry/recycling equipment across two segments, Infrastructure Solutions and Materials Solutions. In 2025 the company generated... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.91: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 7.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Astec Industries, Inc.
About Astec Industries, Inc.
Astec Industries operates two reportable segments, Infrastructure Solutions (asphalt and concrete plants, road construction and forestry equipment) and Materials Solutions (crushing, screening, and material-processing equipment), which carried combined backlogs of $294.2 million and $219.9 million, respectively, as of December 31, 2025. International sales represented approximately 19.9% of total sales in 2025, down from 22.2% in 2024, as the company expanded its portfolio through the July 2025 acquisition of TerraSource Holdings and the January 2026 acquisition of CWMF.
Astec sells equipment directly and through dealer and distributor networks to asphalt and concrete producers, highway contractors, mine and quarry operators, and forestry and recycling contractors, with replacement parts sales forming an integral, recurring complement to new-equipment revenue across both segments. The company is mid-way through a multi-year enterprise resource planning system rollout under its OneASTEC transformation program, having converted three manufacturing sites and its corporate operations to date. Products compete against Wirtgen Group (a John Deere company), Caterpillar Paving Products, Ammann Group, and other peers in a highly fragmented global market, with differentiation built on features such as water-injection warm-mix asphalt systems, RAP-capable plants handling up to 70% recycled material, and the Astec Digital Signal telematics platform. Astec Insurance, a wholly owned captive insurer, manages a portion of the company's risk retention within its Corporate and Other reporting category.
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Astec's cost structure is directly exposed to steel: the 10-K flags rising steel prices and steel surcharges, driven in part by tariffs and shifting trade policy, as a specific risk to its Infrastructure Solutions and Materials Solutions manufacturing operations, both concentrated in the United States and Canada. Because Astec competes against European and Asian-parented rivals such as Wirtgen (a John Deere company), Ammann, and various Fayat Group brands that may source steel and components differently, tariff-driven input-cost increases could compress margins asymmetrically, even as the company's revenue base, only about one-fifth of which came from international sales in 2025, leaves little offsetting exposure to sales priced in other currencies or sourced from lower-cost regions.
See also: Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
From Astec Industries, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — Astec Industries, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Astec Underground Utilities Announces Expansion of Services — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Astec Industries, Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call — fiscal.ai Oct 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Astec Industries Q2 Adj. EPS $0.94 Misses $1.04 Estimate, Sales $408.100M Beat $405.498M Estimate — benzinga Aug 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Earnings Scheduled For May 6, 2026 — benzinga May 6, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Astec Industries Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcript — benzinga May 6, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:45Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-20Item 5.02LOWChad Hartley was appointed Group President - Infrastructure Solutions effective May 11, 2026, succeeding Barend Snyman, whose employment ended April 20, 2026 with severance under the company's Executive and Key Employee Severance Plan; clean handoff.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.91: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 7.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $37.65. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $57.16 (+43.2% upside). Prior stop was $37.65. Stop-loss: $37.65.
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).
Astec Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 47.0 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover ASTE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $67.
What does Astec Industries, Inc. do?Astec Industries designs, engineers, manufactures, and services asphalt and concrete road-building equipment plus...
Astec Industries designs, engineers, manufactures, and services asphalt and concrete road-building equipment plus materials-processing and forestry/recycling equipment across two segments, Infrastructure Solutions and Materials Solutions. In 2025 the company generated approximately 19.9% of total sales internationally, held combined backlog of $294.2 million (Infrastructure Solutions) and $219.9 million (Materials Solutions), and completed acquisitions of TerraSource Holdings (July 2025) and CWMF (January 2026) to expand its crushing/screening and asphalt-plant product lines.