Value
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 9.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.60
- ▸Attractively valued
ASO · Why this verdict
Why Academy Sports and Outdoors, In (ASO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The stock trades at a significant discount with a forward P/E of 7.0x and a PEG of 0.61, but weak technical momentum, a 16% short interest, and a mixed earnings record with no clear delivery trend make the value case difficult to act on without a confirming catalyst.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 7.0x, a PEG of 0.61, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 place the stock among the more attractively valued names in its peer group, offering a material discount to intrinsic indicators. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E re-rates above 10x over the next year as the market recognizes the valuation discount and earnings delivery improves. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCheap valuations persist when business quality is structurally impaired; with no identifiable competitive moat and only 23% of net income converting to free cash flow, the discount may be warranted rather than temporary. | ||
Momentum has deteriorated materially — the stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a flat slope, on-balance volume is declining (distribution, not accumulation), and the momentum score fails the minimum gate at 2.4 versus a threshold of 4.5. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume turns positive (rising) and price crosses back above the 200-day moving average, confirming a momentum recovery. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWeak momentum in a deeply cheap stock can reverse sharply if a catalyst arrives; the combination of low multiple and depressed technical positioning creates asymmetric upside if sentiment shifts. | ||
Short interest stands at 16% of float and the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.14, indicating a material portion of the market is positioned for further downside — a headwind that may suppress any recovery until shorts cover. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 8% as bears cover, removing a structural overhang on the stock price. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh short interest creates fuel for a short squeeze if the company delivers a positive earnings surprise; the 16% level could amplify upside moves rather than only suppressing recovery. | ||
The last four quarters show an alternating beat-miss-beat-miss pattern, with positive surprises of +2.6% and +7.5% offset by misses of -4.0% and -9.1%, averaging slightly negative overall — suggesting no established delivery discipline. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, establishing a genuine positive delivery trend. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe alternating pattern may reflect seasonal demand variability rather than structural guidance failure; the two beats show the business is capable of exceeding consensus when conditions align. | ||
A forward P/E of 7.0x, a PEG of 0.61, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 place the stock among the more attractively valued names in its peer group, offering a material discount to intrinsic indicators.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E re-rates above 10x over the next year as the market recognizes the valuation discount and earnings delivery improves.
CounterCheap valuations persist when business quality is structurally impaired; with no identifiable competitive moat and only 23% of net income converting to free cash flow, the discount may be warranted rather than temporary.
Momentum has deteriorated materially — the stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a flat slope, on-balance volume is declining (distribution, not accumulation), and the momentum score fails the minimum gate at 2.4 versus a threshold of 4.5.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume turns positive (rising) and price crosses back above the 200-day moving average, confirming a momentum recovery.
CounterWeak momentum in a deeply cheap stock can reverse sharply if a catalyst arrives; the combination of low multiple and depressed technical positioning creates asymmetric upside if sentiment shifts.
Short interest stands at 16% of float and the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.14, indicating a material portion of the market is positioned for further downside — a headwind that may suppress any recovery until shorts cover.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 8% as bears cover, removing a structural overhang on the stock price.
CounterHigh short interest creates fuel for a short squeeze if the company delivers a positive earnings surprise; the 16% level could amplify upside moves rather than only suppressing recovery.
The last four quarters show an alternating beat-miss-beat-miss pattern, with positive surprises of +2.6% and +7.5% offset by misses of -4.0% and -9.1%, averaging slightly negative overall — suggesting no established delivery discipline.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, establishing a genuine positive delivery trend.
CounterThe alternating pattern may reflect seasonal demand variability rather than structural guidance failure; the two beats show the business is capable of exceeding consensus when conditions align.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.2 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 3.2 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 3.2 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 3.4 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 43% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 5.5 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 5.8 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 76)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 76 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $57,600 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 4.3 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 9.8 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 5.6 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 23%
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.1% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:86d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.5>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
-0.18
Upside
-2.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 76
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.18 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Momentum at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Growth at 4.3, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.18 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Cheap Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x, indicating the value discount has been substantially closed.
- P2Broken Technical Momentum
Trip ifPrice crosses above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive for 30 consecutive days.
- P3Elevated Short Interest Bearish Positioning
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% of float.
- P4Mixed Earnings No Clear Trend
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.