Skip to main content

Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $230.01 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Ascendis Pharma A/S, operates as a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing TransCon-based therapies for unmet medical needs in Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company offers SKYTROFA for treating pediatric patients with growth hormone deficiency;... Read more

$230.01+10.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#48 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $214.95Target $253.34(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$298.05+29.6%2 analysts
$253.34our TP
$230.01price
$298.05mean
$341

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $230.01 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)25.6
Mkt Cap$14.2B
EV/EBITDA-109.1
Profit Mgn-31.7%
ROE
Rev Growth42.3%
Beta0.48
DividendNone
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.15bearish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$170-26.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.1
Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.9
Value Rank
2.6
Growth Rank
6.2
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $216.22Resistance $250.74

Price Targets

$215
$253
A.Upside+10.1%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASND stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $230.01 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $214.95. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASND stock price target?

Take-profit target: $253.34 (+10.1% upside). Prior stop was $214.95. Stop-loss: $214.95.

What are the risks of investing in ASND?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is ASND overvalued or undervalued?

Ascendis Pharma A/S trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 25.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ASND?

24 analysts cover ASND with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $298.

What does Ascendis Pharma A/S do?Ascendis Pharma A/S, operates as a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing TransCon-based therapies for...

Ascendis Pharma A/S, operates as a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing TransCon-based therapies for unmet medical needs in Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company offers SKYTROFA for treating pediatric patients with growth hormone deficiency; and YORVIPATH, a once-daily subcutaneous injection for the treatment of adults with chronic hypoparathyroidism. It is also developing a pipeline of three independent endocrinology rare disease product candidates in clinical development, as well as focuses on advancing oncology therapeutic candidates. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Hellerup, Denmark.

Related stocks: AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc) · INCY (Incyte Corporation) · HRMY (Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I) · CPRX (Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) · INVA (Innoviva, Inc.)