Value
5.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.3 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 8.3 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.79
ASND · Why this verdict
Why Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 4.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 1.9 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 333%
- ▸Strong margins: 57%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 24% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 6.9 |
- ▸Strong growth: 144% YoY
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 9.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.8 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 43%
Insider
5.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 7.2 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $4,356,609 (0.034% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 9.7 |
| growth rank | 9.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 8.2 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| debt equity | 3.3 |
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.47
Upside
+29.0%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOVERSOLD_BOUNCE — Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5. Top dim: Technical at 8.7; weakest: Momentum at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.7, Growth at 8.4, and Sentiment at 8.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Catalyst at 5.4, and Insider at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.