Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
ARCO · Why this verdict
Why Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 2.4 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.9 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 36%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 78% FCF/NI
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $180,200 (0.010% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.2 |
- ▸High IV: 78%
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 317.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:67d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.98
Upside
+8.8%
Downside
8.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.98 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Growth at 7.8, and Peer rank at 6.6; the weakest are Quality at 4.5, Technical at 4.9, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.98 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.