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AMBAAmbarella, Inc.Sell5.5·$70.34+3.78%
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Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $70.34: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Ambarella designs low-power AI SoCs for edge applications including security cameras, automotive ADAS, and robotics, targeting IoT and automotive end markets with its third-generation CVflow architecture on 4 nm and 5 nm process nodes. The company sells through ODMs and OEMs,... Read more

$70.34+16.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#11 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.59%
Stop $65.35Target $81.56(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$93.75+33.3%12 analysts
$81.56our TP
$70.34price
$93.75mean
$120

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $70.34: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Ambarella, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202673d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: WT Microelectronics (70.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 end customers (67.0%)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)59.1
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA-43.2
Profit Mgn-17.2%
ROE-11.8%
Rev Growth16.9%
Beta2.15
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV83%elevated
Max Pain$62-11.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerWT Microelectronics70%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the customer representing 10% or more of our revenue was WT Microelectronics Co., Ltd., or WT...accounted for approximately 70% of total revenue'
  • HIGHCustomertop 10 end customers67%
    10-K Item 1A: 'revenue from our top 10 end customers...accounted for approximately 67% of our total revenue in fiscal year 2026'
  • HIGHGeographicHong Kong warehouse
    10-K Item 1A: 'We operate a warehouse facility in Hong Kong through which the substantial majority of our finished SoCs are shipped to customers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Rsi
3.5
Ma Position
4.2
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Unprofitable operations — net margin -17.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
5.3
Moat
5.8
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
7.8
Current Ratio
8.3
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 12%, FCF yield 1.6%)
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $61.80Resistance $96.36

Price Targets

$65
$82
A.Upside+16.0%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMBA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $70.34: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $65.35. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMBA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $81.56 (+16.1% upside). Prior stop was $65.35. Stop-loss: $65.35.

What are the risks of investing in AMBA?

Concentration risk — Customer: WT Microelectronics (70.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 end customers (67.0%); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is AMBA overvalued or undervalued?

Ambarella, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 59.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMBA?

20 analysts cover AMBA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $94.

What does Ambarella, Inc. do?Ambarella designs low-power AI SoCs for edge applications including security cameras, automotive ADAS, and robotics,...

Ambarella designs low-power AI SoCs for edge applications including security cameras, automotive ADAS, and robotics, targeting IoT and automotive end markets with its third-generation CVflow architecture on 4 nm and 5 nm process nodes. The company sells through ODMs and OEMs, with distributor WT Microelectronics representing approximately 70% of fiscal year 2026 total revenue.

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