Three consecutive earnings beats averaging over 30% upside surprise and 32% revenue growth confirm strong near-term business momentum in semiconductor test equipment, but a forward P/E of 54.7x, free cash flow that is negative relative to net income, and sole-source supplier concentration leave the stock priced for perfection with meaningful downside if execution falters.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Profile→Stable
- Rich Valuation With Negative Fcf→Stable
- Sole Source Supplier Concentration↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026
FormFactor, Inc. (FORM) Stock Analysis
Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Sell if holding. At $110.31, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
FormFactor designs and manufactures probe cards, probe stations, thermal systems, and cryogenic systems for semiconductor testing across two segments (Probe Cards and Systems). One customer represented 22.9% of fiscal 2025 revenues; probe card sales account for the substantial... Read more
Sell if holding. At $110.31, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — FormFactor, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS FormFactor (FORM) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS FormFactor (NASDAQ:FORM) Delivers Impressive Q2, Stock Jumps 16.6% - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS FORM Builds AI Testing Capacity Through Keystone Pact: What's Ahead? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS FormFactor (NASDAQ:FORM) Reports Q1 In Line With Expectations, Stock Jumps 12.6% - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS FORMFACTOR ($FORM) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerSK hynix Inc.10-K Item 1: 'SK hynix Inc.| 19.2 | %| | 24.5 | %| | 25.0 | %| | 23.3 | %'
- MEDIUMProductprobe cards10-K Item 1A: 'We derive the majority of our revenues from the sale of our probe card products'
- HIGHSuppliersole source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We obtain some of the components and materials used in our products, such as printed circuit board assemblies, plating materials and ceramic substrates, from a sole source'
- LOWGeographicChina7.0%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 7% of our fiscal 2025 revenue and 14% of our fiscal 2024 revenue was derived from sales to customers in China'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-19Item 5.02LOWAt the May 15, 2026 Annual Meeting, FormFactor stockholders approved an amendment to the 2012 Equity Incentive Plan increasing shares reserved for issuance by 5,000,000. Compensatory arrangement update; no officer departure or new appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $110.31, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $102.59. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $131.47 (+19.2% upside). Prior stop was $102.59. Stop-loss: $102.59.
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.
FormFactor, Inc. trades at a P/E of 76.1 (forward 28.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover FORM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $151.
What does FormFactor, Inc. do?FormFactor designs and manufactures probe cards, probe stations, thermal systems, and cryogenic systems for...
FormFactor designs and manufactures probe cards, probe stations, thermal systems, and cryogenic systems for semiconductor testing across two segments (Probe Cards and Systems). One customer represented 22.9% of fiscal 2025 revenues; probe card sales account for the substantial majority of revenues from foundry & logic and memory manufacturers.