Alamo Group, Inc. (ALG) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ALG stock price target?

Entry $166.29, take-profit $180.44 (+8.5% upside). Target $180.44 (+4.9%), stop $155.50 (−10.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1.

Q: Is ALG overvalued or undervalued?

Alamo Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.2 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Overall verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

Q: What do analysts say about ALG?

8 analysts cover ALG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $207.

Recovery setup

Buy WaitModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-02

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Alamo Group manufactures and sells industrial and vegetation management equipment across two divisions: Industrial Equipment (vacuum trucks, street sweepers, excavators, snow removal) and Vegetation Management (mowing, land maintenance). With ~3,800 employees and 27... Read more

$172.00+8.5% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#10 of 12 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Entry $166.29(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $155.50Target $180.44(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1

Analyst target$207.40+20.6%5 analysts

$180.44our TP

$172.00price

$207.40mean

$225

Wait for pullback to $166.29. At $172.00 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $166.29 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: governmental entities; Thin upside margin: 5.3%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Customer: governmental entities

Thin upside margin: 5.3%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.2

P/E (Fwd)14.6

Mkt Cap$2.1B

EV/EBITDA9.7

Profit Mgn6.5%

ROE9.6%

Rev Growth-3.0%

Beta1.20

Dividend0.74%

Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish

IV51%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHCustomergovernmental entities
10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial portion of our revenues is derived from sales to federal, state, provincial and local governmental entities and related contractors'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.115%1.06

Quality4.615%0.69

Growth0.915%0.14

Momentum3.310%0.33

Sentiment6.810%0.68

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.010%0.40

Technical Setup5.35%0.27

Risk Profile6.85%0.34

Catalyst4.35%0.21

Overall (Σ contributions)4.62

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -3.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth

0.0

Revenue Growth

1.8

Declining revenue: -3%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.2

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.0

Rsi

4.5

Macd

10.0

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

43 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $163.67Resistance $180.95

Price Targets

$156

$166

$180

A.Upside+4.9%

A.R:R0.8:1

Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk

! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-04 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ALG stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $166.29. At $172.00 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $166.29 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: governmental entities; Thin upside margin: 5.3%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $180.44 (+4.9%), stop $155.50 (−10.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $180.44 (+8.5% upside). Target $180.44 (+4.9%), stop $155.50 (−10.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $155.50.

What are the risks of investing in ALG?

Concentration risk — Customer: governmental entities; Thin upside margin: 5.3%.

Is ALG overvalued or undervalued?

Alamo Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.2 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ALG?

8 analysts cover ALG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $207.

What does Alamo Group, Inc. do?Alamo Group manufactures and sells industrial and vegetation management equipment across two divisions: Industrial...