AAR Corp. (AIR) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $129.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.8% away).
AAR Corp. provides aviation aftermarket solutions through four segments—Parts Supply (40%), Repair & Engineering (32%), Integrated Solutions (25%), and Expeditionary Services (3%)—serving commercial airlines and government customers globally. FY2025 consolidated sales were $2.78... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $129.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.8% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About AAR Corp.
About AAR Corp.
AAR Corp. derived 71.1% of FY2025 consolidated sales from commercial customers—principally airlines and OEM suppliers—and 28.9% from global government and defense customers, totaling $2.78 billion on 19.9% year-over-year growth. At May 31, 2025, the company employed approximately 5,600 workers across 20-plus countries, with segments spanning Parts Supply (40%), Repair & Engineering (32%), Integrated Solutions (25%), and Expeditionary Services (3%).
AAR earns revenue primarily from aftermarket parts distribution and aircraft repair services. The Parts Supply segment distributes used serviceable material—aircraft parts from retired engines and airframes—as well as new OEM parts through more than 30 authorized distribution relationships covering over 300 Federal Supply Class codes from over 20 original equipment manufacturers. In Integrated Solutions, AAR holds the prime contractor role on the U.S. Department of State's INL/A WASS contract, a ten-year performance-based agreement begun in fiscal 2018 to operate and maintain the global DoS fixed- and rotary-wing fleet. Firm backlog of $537.2 million at May 31, 2025 is expected to convert at roughly 75% in fiscal 2026 and 20% in fiscal 2027. U.S. government sales of $687.6 million in FY2025 are subject to annual congressional appropriations; in April 2025, the White House proposed reducing DoS budgets by nearly 50%, which the 10-K states has negatively impacted available DoS contract funding by $70 million in annual revenue.
Show full overview
AAR's U.S. government exposure—24.7% of FY2025 consolidated sales—faces compounding budget and re-competition risk. The INL/A WASS contract began in fiscal 2018, and within its ten-year term the company may face recompetition approaching a program review point. Separately, the U.S. Department of Commerce initiated a Section 232 investigation in May 2025 into national security implications of commercial aircraft and engine imports; the 10-K acknowledges this outcome is uncertain but could be material to AAR's distribution and government services businesses depending on the investigation's findings.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From AAR Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-13Recent Developments — AAR Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS AAR Signs Multi-Year Commercial Distribution Agreement With Woodward To Serve As Preferred Distributor Of Woodward Consu — benzinga Apr 22, 2026 neutral
- NEWS AAR Corp Wins $305M Contract To Provide Contractor Logistics Support For The United States Navy And Marine Corps C-40A F — benzinga Apr 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS Keybanc Maintains Overweight on AAR, Raises Price Target to $132 — benzinga Apr 9, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerU.S. government25%10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to branches, agencies and departments of the U.S. government and their contractors were $687.6 million (24.7% of consolidated sales) in fiscal 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $129.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.8% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $127.40 (-1.2%), stop $119.98 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $127.40 (-1.2% upside). Target $127.40 (-1.2%), stop $119.98 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $119.98.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.8% away); Overbought (RSI 76).
AAR Corp. trades at a P/E of 28.4 (forward 22.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
11 analysts cover AIR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $132.
What does AAR Corp. do?AAR Corp. provides aviation aftermarket solutions through four segments—Parts Supply (40%), Repair & Engineering (32%),...
AAR Corp. provides aviation aftermarket solutions through four segments—Parts Supply (40%), Repair & Engineering (32%), Integrated Solutions (25%), and Expeditionary Services (3%)—serving commercial airlines and government customers globally. FY2025 consolidated sales were $2.78 billion, up 19.9%; commercial customers accounted for 71.1% and U.S. government for 24.7% of sales, with approximately 5,600 employees worldwide.