Aeromexico is a cheap airline (forward P/E 8.7x) with excellent cash conversion and 50.1% upside to the $22.76 analyst target, but earnings are expected to fall about 82% from a cyclical peak, results swing widely, and the shares are in a confirmed downtrend.
Thesis pillars
- Valuation Discounts Earnings Decline↑Improving
- Strong Cash Conversion→Stable
- Volatile Earnings Surprises↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V (AERO) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Airlines
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $15.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~82% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and goods. It offers scheduled passenger air carrier services, cargo air carrier services, and other services. The company also offers loyalty program management,... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $15.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~82% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 103d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V
Latest news
- NEWS Earnings Preview: AERO to Report Financial Results Post-market on July 13 - Moomoo — Moomoo neutral
- NEWS Grupo Aeromexico Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Grupo Aeroméxico. de (NYSE:AERO) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street neutral
- NEWS Jefferies raises General Dynamics stock price target on aero strength - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS Jefferies Initiates on Grupo Aeroméxico (AERO) at Hold and Points to Premium Fares as Its Strongest Bull Case - Yahoo Fi — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:44Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $15.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~82% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $14.15. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $22.76 (+49.5% upside). Prior stop was $14.15. Stop-loss: $14.15.
Earnings expected to decline ~82% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V trades at a P/E of 1.5 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover AERO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $26.
What does Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V do?Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and...
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and goods. It offers scheduled passenger air carrier services, cargo air carrier services, and other services. The company also offers loyalty program management, training, franchise systems, and investment management services. Its network of destinations includes Mexico, the United States, South America, Central America, the Caribbean, Canada, Europe, and Asia. The company was founded in 1934 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.