Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V (AERO) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the AERO stock price target?

Take-profit $24.05 (+60.5% upside). Prior stop was $13.93.

Q: What are the risks of investing in AERO?

Cyclical trap - fwd PE 8x vs trail 1x (11.5x); Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0); Cyclical trap - fwd PE 8x vs trail 1x (11.5x); Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0).

Q: Is AERO overvalued or undervalued?

Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V trades at a P/E of 0.7 (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about AERO?

15 analysts cover AERO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $28.

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-02

Industrials · Airlines

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.98: Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 5.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 20.00; Negative price momentum.

$14.98+60.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#5 of 12 Airlines

Stop $13.93Target $24.05(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.2:1

Analyst target$27.64+84.5%9 analysts

$24.05our TP

$14.98price

$27.64mean

$30

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Cyclical trap - fwd PE 8x vs trail 1x (11.5x)

Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)0.7

P/E (Fwd)7.7

Mkt Cap$2.2B

EV/EBITDA22.2

Profit Mgn6.2%

ROE—

Rev Growth13.3%

Beta—

DividendNone

Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C20.00bearish

IV78%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.215%1.23

Quality5.015%0.75

Growth2.915%0.43

Momentum3.210%0.32

Sentiment7.410%0.74

Insider Activity6.610%0.66

Peer Rank6.510%0.65

Technical Setup5.55%0.28

Risk Profile2.35%0.11

Catalyst5.05%0.25

Overall (Σ contributions)5.43

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Volatile — 5.9% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility

0.0

Put Call

0.0

Implied Vol

0.3

Days To Cover

8.9

Elevated put/call: 20.00High IV: 78%

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth

0.0

Revenue Growth

5.8

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Ma Position

2.5

Macd

3.6

Rsi

4.5

Obv

5.4

GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 5.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

48 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MASupport $13.87Resistance $17.10

Price Targets

$14

$24

A.Upside+60.5%

A.R:R5.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 8x vs trail 1x (11.5x)

! Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0)

! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for AERO.

The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is AERO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.98: Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 5.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 20.00; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $13.93. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AERO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.05 (+60.5% upside). Prior stop was $13.93. Stop-loss: $13.93.

What are the risks of investing in AERO?

Cyclical trap - fwd PE 8x vs trail 1x (11.5x); Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0).

Is AERO overvalued or undervalued?

Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V trades at a P/E of 0.7 (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AERO?

15 analysts cover AERO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V do?Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and...

Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and goods. It offers scheduled passenger air carrier services, cargo air carrier services, and other services. The company also offers loyalty programs. Its network of destinations includes Mexico, the United States, South America, Central America, the Caribbean, Canada, Europe, and Asia. The company was founded in 1934 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.