Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.8x
- ▸Attractively valued
AERO · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Aeromexico (AERO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 5.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.4 |
| Op margin | 4.1 |
| Net margin | 3.1 |
| Current ratio | 2.6 |
| FCF quality | 9.8 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 144% FCF/NI
Growth
2.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 5.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 73%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $319,408 (0.014% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.9 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 3.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 0.7 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
- ▸High IV: 101%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:43d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.38
Upside
+50.5%
Downside
11.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.38 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Growth at 2.9, Momentum at 3.9, and Technical at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.38 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.