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VLRSControladora Vuela Compania de Sell4.7·$8.46-6.83%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Volaris carries a live earnings catalyst and a 3-of-4 beat streak, but quality sits far below the engine's investment floor, the asymmetry gate has failed, and insider selling plus an overbought momentum reading argue for caution into the print.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Score Below Investment FloorStable
  • Earnings Beat Streak Into CatalystStable
  • Downside Skewed Risk RewardStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Controladora Vuela Compania de (VLRS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellValueModerate Confidence

Industrials · Airlines

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.46: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiary, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally. The company operates approximately 550... Read more

$8.46+12.8% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#15 of 16 Airlines
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield44.35%
Stop $7.87Target $9.54(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$9.09+7.5%13 analysts
$9.54our TP
$8.46price
$9.09mean
$7
$12

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.46: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202614d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-6.5% upside)
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-531.9
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA12.9
Profit Mgn-4.0%
ROE-47.6%
Rev Growth13.6%
Beta0.92
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

IV138%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -4.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.9
Gross Margin
1.7
Current Ratio
2.7
Moat
4.2
Piotroski F
4.4
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
2.5
Volume
4.7
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $7.15Resistance $9.73

Price Targets

$8
$10
A.Upside+12.8%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VLRS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.46: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $7.87. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VLRS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.54 (+12.8% upside). Prior stop was $7.87. Stop-loss: $7.87.

What are the risks of investing in VLRS?

Target reached (-6.5% upside); Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0).

Is VLRS overvalued or undervalued?

Controladora Vuela Compania de trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -531.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VLRS?

11 analysts cover VLRS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Controladora Vuela Compania de do?Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiary, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de...

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiary, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally. The company operates approximately 550 daily flights on routes connecting 44 cities in Mexico, 22 cities in the United States, 4 cities in Central America, and 2 cities in South America. It also offers travel agency, share administration trust, pre-delivery payments financing, aircraft administration trust, and loyalty program, as well as specialized and aeronautical technical services. The company leases 151 aircraft and 14 spare engines. Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

Related stocks: CPA (Copa Holdings, S.A.) · RJET (Republic Airways Holdings Inc.) · AZUL (Azul S.A.) · AERO (Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V) · SKYW (SkyWest, Inc.)
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Controladora Vuela Compania de (VLRS) Stock Sell: $8.46 | Jul 2026 | TrendMatrix