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AAPAdvance Auto Parts Inc.Sell4.1·$61.20+0.67%
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Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.20: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. and its subsidiaries is a leading automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers ("professional") and "do-it-yourself" ("DIY") customers, as well as independently-owned operators. The Company's stores offer a... Read more

$61.200.0% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#26 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-6.22%
IncomeYield1.64%(5y avg 2.97%)Payout89.29%at-risk
Stop $56.92Target $61.22(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$60.37-1.4%19 analysts
$61.22our TP
$61.20price
$60.37mean
$35
$70

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.20: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 59d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Advance Auto Parts Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202659d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-11.2% upside)
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)54.3
P/E (Fwd)15.2
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn0.5%
ROE3.1%
Rev Growth1.2%
Beta1.06
Dividend1.64%
Rating analysts35

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.72neutral
IV63%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.8
Quality Rank
2.3
Value Rank
4.5

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.5
Revenue Growth
2.8

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Net Margin
0.3
Roe
1.0
Roa
1.2
Operating Margin
1.5
Moat
4.5
Gross Margin
4.9
Current Ratio
6.3
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -518% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.8
Bollinger
2.2
52w Position
7.8
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 59d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $47.45Resistance $62.47

Price Targets

$57
$61
A.Upside+0.0%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (59d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.20: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $56.92. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AAP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $61.22 (0.0% upside). Prior stop was $56.92. Stop-loss: $56.92.

What are the risks of investing in AAP?

Target reached (-11.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is AAP overvalued or undervalued?

Advance Auto Parts Inc. trades at a P/E of 54.3 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AAP?

35 analysts cover AAP with a consensus score of 2.9/5. Average price target: $60.

What does Advance Auto Parts Inc. do?Advance Auto Parts, Inc. and its subsidiaries is a leading automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America,...

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. and its subsidiaries is a leading automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers ("professional") and "do-it-yourself" ("DIY") customers, as well as independently-owned operators. The Company's stores offer a broad selection of brand names, original equipment manufacturer ("OEM") and owned brand automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility ve...

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