AAON is a strong-growth building-products business delivering 54% revenue growth with upward earnings estimate revisions, but the stock trades at a forward P/E of 39.9x — a demanding valuation premium — while free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income, price momentum is weakening via volume distribution, and the options market is pricing elevated downside hedging activity.
Thesis pillars
- Expensive Valuation Premium→Stable
- Strong Growth Rising Estimates→Stable
- Deeply Negative Fcf Quality→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026
AAON, Inc. (AAON) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $75.30 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
AAON designs and manufactures HVAC and liquid cooling equipment through three segments — AAON Oklahoma (commercial rooftop units), AAON Coil Products (custom coils), and BASX (data center and cleanroom cooling). Domestic sales dominate at 97.4% of 2025 net sales; three customers... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $75.30 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About AAON, Inc.
About AAON, Inc.
AAON's order backlog grew to $1,828.5 million at December 31, 2025, more than double the $867.1 million booked a year prior, reflecting rapidly rising demand for BASX-brand data center cooling equipment. Foreign sales totaled approximately $38.1 million in 2025, or 2.6% of total net sales. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma (commercial and industrial rooftop HVAC), AAON Coil Products (custom coils and HVAC assemblies), and BASX (data center cooling, cleanroom solutions, and custom air handling).
Revenue is earned through build-to-order sales directed primarily through a network of independent sales representatives serving the domestic market. AAON's commercial HVAC products — rooftop units spanning 2 to 261 tons of cooling capacity — compete against Lennox, Trane, York (Bosch), Johnson Controls, Carrier, and Daikin. BASX thermal management products compete against Vertiv, STULZ, Munters, Silent Aire, Nortek, and Modine. Primary raw materials are steel, copper, and aluminum sourced under cancellable and non-cancellable contracts with 6-to-18-month terms; the company states it is not dependent on any single supplier. Key BASX data center customers include hyperscale operators — the 10-K names Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, QTS, and Applied Digital as examples. A revolving credit facility permits borrowings up to $600.0 million, with $398.3 million outstanding at December 31, 2025.
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Three customers each exceeded 10% of AAON's net sales in 2025, representing a meaningful but unquantified share of revenue. BASX-brand data center orders carry materially higher cancellation and rescheduling risk than commercial HVAC backlog: the 10-K notes that BASX orders are subject to 'shifts in timing, cancellations and re-issuances of orders, all subject to various cancellation terms and charges,' in contrast to commercial air conditioning orders, which are characterized as firm with minimal cancellation risk.
See also: Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
From AAON, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — AAON, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Aaon chief accounting officer Rebecca Thompson sells $228k in stock - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
- NEWS Aaon chief accounting officer sells $729,929 in stock - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS Aaon chief accounting officer Rebecca Thompson sells $2.2m in stock - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS AAON (AAON) Chief Accounting Officer sells 2,287 shares, exercises options - Stock Titan — Stock Titan negative
- NEWS Rebecca Thompson Sells 400 Shares of AAON (NASDAQ:AAON) Stock - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:44Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerthree customers ≥10% of revenue10-K Item 1: 'the Company had three, two and three customers, respectively, that were 10 percent or greater concentrations of revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-02Item 5.02MEDIUMAAON announced CFO transition on April 2, 2026. Andy Cheung (age 51) joins as EVP and CFO effective April 20, 2026, with 25+ years in HVAC and automotive industries. Rebecca Thompson departing from CFO role; no reason cited. Successor named with full compensation terms disclosed.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $75.30 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $70.03. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $109.22 (+45.1% upside). Prior stop was $70.03. Stop-loss: $70.03.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
AAON, Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.6 (forward 21.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover AAON with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $129.
What does AAON, Inc. do?AAON designs and manufactures HVAC and liquid cooling equipment through three segments — AAON Oklahoma (commercial...
AAON designs and manufactures HVAC and liquid cooling equipment through three segments — AAON Oklahoma (commercial rooftop units), AAON Coil Products (custom coils), and BASX (data center and cleanroom cooling). Domestic sales dominate at 97.4% of 2025 net sales; three customers each exceeded 10% of revenue. Order backlog stood at $1,828.5M at December 31, 2025.