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AWIArmstrong World Industries IncHold6.2·$155.09+1.91%
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Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $155.09, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: building materials distributors (63.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Armstrong World Industries manufactures mineral fiber and specialty ceiling, wall, and exterior metal products through its Mineral Fiber and Architectural Specialties segments, primarily serving commercial renovation and new construction. About 63% of 2025 consolidated net sales... Read more

$155.09+14.5% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 19 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.34%
IncomeYield0.87%(5y avg 0.96%)Payout18.35%sustainable
Stop $146.77Target $177.57(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$204.10+31.6%10 analysts
$177.57our TP
$155.09price
$204.10mean
$235

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $155.09, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: building materials distributors (63.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-11
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: building materials distributors (63.0%)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.6
P/E (Fwd)16.2
Mkt Cap$6.5B
EV/EBITDA15.9
Profit Mgn18.6%
ROE36.3%
Rev Growth7.1%
Beta1.17
Dividend0.87%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.52bullish
IV52%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerbuilding materials distributors63%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 63% of our consolidated net sales were to building materials distributors'
  • LOWCustomerLowe's Companies, Inc.
    10-K Item 1: 'Gross sales to Lowe's Companies, Inc. ... each individually exceeded 10% of our consolidated gross sales in 2025'
  • LOWCustomerThe Home Depot, Inc.
    10-K Item 1: 'The Home Depot, Inc. (including sales to GMS, Inc.) ... each individually exceeded 10% of our consolidated gross sales in 2025'
  • MEDIUMSupplierlimited or single-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We source some materials from a limited, or single, number of suppliers, which, among other things, increases the risk of unavailability.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.3>=4.5A.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $150.28Resistance $162.97

Price Targets

$147
$178
A.Upside+14.5%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts15
Consensus3.8/5
Avg Target$204

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AWI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $155.09, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: building materials distributors (63.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $177.57 (+14.5%), stop $146.77 (−5.7%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AWI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $177.57 (+14.5% upside). Target $177.57 (+14.5%), stop $146.77 (−5.7%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $146.77.

What are the risks of investing in AWI?

Concentration risk — Customer: building materials distributors (63.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is AWI overvalued or undervalued?

Armstrong World Industries Inc trades at a P/E of 21.6 (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AWI?

15 analysts cover AWI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $204.

What does Armstrong World Industries Inc do?Armstrong World Industries manufactures mineral fiber and specialty ceiling, wall, and exterior metal products through...

Armstrong World Industries manufactures mineral fiber and specialty ceiling, wall, and exterior metal products through its Mineral Fiber and Architectural Specialties segments, primarily serving commercial renovation and new construction. About 63% of 2025 consolidated net sales went through building materials distributors; Lowe's and The Home Depot each individually exceeded 10% of gross sales. The company also holds a 50% interest in WAVE, a ceiling suspension grid joint venture with Worthington Enterprises.

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