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MAIRMadison Air Solutions CorporatiSell5.7·$33.23-4.61%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Madison Air Solutions is growing revenue at a 34% YoY clip and screens cheap on a growth-adjusted basis, but high leverage and weak near-term momentum argue for caution despite the strong growth engine.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue GrowthStable
  • High Leverage PenaltyStable
  • Momentum BreakdownStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Madison Air Solutions Corporati (MAIR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.23: Risk below floor (1.5 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.67; Negative price momentum.

Madison Air Solutions Corporation manufactures and sells indoor air quality products and solutions in the United States and internationally. It offers heating, air filtration and purification, air movement, and air conditioning solutions under the Reznor, AprilAire, Big Ass... Read more

$33.23+21.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#7 of 26 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
Stop $32.46Target $41.68(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$47.91+44.2%11 analysts
$41.68our TP
$33.23price
$47.91mean
$50

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.23: Risk below floor (1.5 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.67; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Risk below floor (1.5 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)108.3
P/E (Fwd)30.4
Mkt Cap$19.0B
EV/EBITDA32.0
Profit Mgn2.6%
ROE
Rev Growth33.8%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.67bearish
IV108%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Volatile — 6.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Days To Cover
2.7
Short Interest
6.1
Elevated put/call: 2.67High IV: 108%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.5
Volume
3.3
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.2
Quality Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
8.8
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $33.46Resistance $41.89

Price Targets

$32
$42
A.Upside+25.4%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (1.5 < 3.0)
! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for MAIR.
The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MAIR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.23: Risk below floor (1.5 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.67; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $32.46. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MAIR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.68 (+21.3% upside). Prior stop was $32.46. Stop-loss: $32.46.

What are the risks of investing in MAIR?

Risk below floor (1.5 < 3.0).

Is MAIR overvalued or undervalued?

Madison Air Solutions Corporati trades at a P/E of 108.3 (forward 30.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MAIR?

18 analysts cover MAIR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Madison Air Solutions Corporati do?Madison Air Solutions Corporation manufactures and sells indoor air quality products and solutions in the United States...

Madison Air Solutions Corporation manufactures and sells indoor air quality products and solutions in the United States and internationally. It offers heating, air filtration and purification, air movement, and air conditioning solutions under the Reznor, AprilAire, Big Ass Fans, Nortek Air Solutions and, Roberts-Gordon. The company also provides related services, such as custom design, installation, repair, and maintenance. The company distributes through various customer bases and sales channels, including direct sales to national, regional and local companies; manufacturers' sales representatives; distributors; and retail partners. It serves healthcare and life sciences, advanced manufacturing, data centers, logistics, and education industries, as well as residential markets. Madison Air Solutions Corporation was founded in 2017 and is based in Chicago, Illinois. Madison Air Solutions Corporation is a subsidiary of Madison Industries Holdings LLC.

Related stocks: AWI (Armstrong World Industries Inc) · SPXC (SPX Technologies, Inc.) · AAON (AAON, Inc.) · MAS (Masco Corporation) · JCI (Johnson Controls International )
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