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ARLOArlo Technologies, Inc.Sell5.9·$12.69+0.16%
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Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.69 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia Pacific (Vietnam) manufacturing; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Arlo Technologies provides smart home and business security services combining cloud-based AI analytics with cameras, doorbells, and security systems sold through retail, wireless carriers, and security providers. Revenue comes from hardware sales and subscription services (Arlo... Read more

$12.69+46.6% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#3 of 19 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.63%
Stop $11.82Target $18.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 6.0:1
Analyst target$21.40+68.6%5 analysts
$18.62our TP
$12.69price
$21.40mean
$24

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.69 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia Pacific (Vietnam) manufacturing; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Arlo Technologies, Inc.

About Arlo Technologies, Inc.

Arlo Technologies exited fiscal 2025 with a $46.3 million order backlog — expected to convert to revenue over the following six months — across five hardware product lines and four subscription tiers. Verisure, the exclusive European distributor under a supply agreement extended through November 2029, accounted for 32% of total 2025 revenue. The company's 186-person R&D team operated from offices in North America, Ireland, and Asia.

Arlo earns hardware revenue through a multi-channel network including retailers Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, Sam's Club, and Home Depot; wireless carriers AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon; and security solution providers including Verisure. Recurring subscription revenue comes from Arlo Secure, Arlo Total Security, and Arlo Safe tiers. Manufacturing is fully outsourced to four ODMs — Foxconn Cloud Network Technology Singapore, Pegatron Corporation, Alpha Networks, and Chicony Electronics — with assembly concentrated primarily in Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia. No long-term contracts are in place with these manufacturers, making capacity arrangements subject to periodic renegotiation. Key components including lens, lens-sensors, passive infrared sensors, and custom batteries are sourced from sole-source suppliers, each customized to Arlo specifications. The company competes against Amazon (Ring and Blink), Google (Nest), ADT, and telecom providers AT&T, Verizon, and Comcast.

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Component sole-sourcing shapes the supply risk profile: customized lenses, passive infrared sensors, and batteries optimized for power conservation come from sole suppliers, meaning a quality failure or supply disruption at one vendor has no immediate alternative. The 10-K warns that obtaining alternative sources for these components 'could be difficult, costly, and time consuming.' Compounding this, substantially all manufacturing is concentrated primarily in Vietnam; tightening Vietnamese labor markets or regional disruptions may impact Arlo's cost structure and supply continuity with no readily available alternative facility.

See also: Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

From Arlo Technologies, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia Pacific (Vietnam) manufacturing
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.3
P/E (Fwd)12.8
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA57.5
Profit Mgn5.5%
ROE23.3%
Rev Growth26.3%
Beta1.55
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.12bullish
IV74%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerVerisure32%
    10-K Item 1: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, 32% of our total revenue was derived from Verisure.'
  • HIGHGeographicAsia Pacific (Vietnam) manufacturing
    10-K Item 1A: 'substantially all of our manufacturing and assembly occurs in the Asia Pacific region, primarily in Vietnam'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.2
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
3.6
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 6.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.13Resistance $13.89

Price Targets

$12
$19
A.Upside+46.7%
A.R:R6.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARLO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.69 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia Pacific (Vietnam) manufacturing; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.82. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.

What is the ARLO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.62 (+46.6% upside). Prior stop was $11.82. Stop-loss: $11.82.

What are the risks of investing in ARLO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia Pacific (Vietnam) manufacturing; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5.

Is ARLO overvalued or undervalued?

Arlo Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of 45.3 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARLO?

11 analysts cover ARLO with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Arlo Technologies, Inc. do?Arlo Technologies provides smart home and business security services combining cloud-based AI analytics with cameras,...

Arlo Technologies provides smart home and business security services combining cloud-based AI analytics with cameras, doorbells, and security systems sold through retail, wireless carriers, and security providers. Revenue comes from hardware sales and subscription services (Arlo Secure, Total Security, Safe); Verisure is the exclusive European distributor representing 32% of 2025 total revenue.

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