Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ARLO stock price target?

Take-profit $18.27 (+26.5% upside). Prior stop was $13.43.

Q: Is ARLO overvalued or undervalued?

Arlo Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of 100.4 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ARLO?

10 analysts cover ARLO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $22.

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.44: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam.

Arlo Technologies makes smart home security cameras, doorbells, floodlight cameras, and home security systems globally, with a cloud-based SaaS platform (Arlo Secure, Arlo Total Security, Arlo Safe subscriptions). Revenue comes from device sales and recurring subscriptions. All... Read more

$14.44+26.5% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#4 of 18 Building Products & Equipment

Stop $13.43Target $18.27(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.3:1

Analyst target$21.50+48.9%4 analysts

$18.27our TP

$14.44price

$21.50mean

$24

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.44: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

Attractive valuation

Analyst upside: 27%

Risks

Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers

Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam

Leverage penalty (D/E 6.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)100.4

P/E (Fwd)14.7

Mkt Cap$1.5B

EV/EBITDA134.3

Profit Mgn2.8%

ROE13.1%

Rev Growth16.2%

Beta1.71

DividendNone

Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.69bullish

IV126%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHSuppliersole source suppliers
10-K Item 1A: 'Many of the components used in our products are specifically designed for use in our products, some of which are obtained from sole source suppliers.'
HIGHGeographicVietnam
10-K Item 1A: 'substantially all of our manufacturing and assembly occurs in the Asia Pacific region, primarily in Vietnam'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.115%1.06

Quality4.715%0.70

Growth6.615%0.99

Momentum4.710%0.47

Sentiment7.310%0.73

Insider Activity3.010%0.30

Peer Rank3.510%0.35

Technical Setup4.05%0.20

Risk Profile3.15%0.16

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)5.34

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank

2.2

Quality Rank

3.5

Growth Rank

8.3

Industry growth leader

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

59 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.77Resistance $15.44

Price Targets

$13

$18

A.Upside+26.5%

A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ARLO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.44: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $13.43. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the ARLO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.27 (+26.5% upside). Prior stop was $13.43. Stop-loss: $13.43.

What are the risks of investing in ARLO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.8): -1.5.

Is ARLO overvalued or undervalued?

Arlo Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of 100.4 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARLO?

10 analysts cover ARLO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Arlo Technologies, Inc. do?Arlo Technologies makes smart home security cameras, doorbells, floodlight cameras, and home security systems globally,...