Valvoline is an automotive quick-lube service company with 25% revenue growth, 32% return on equity, and a recovery technical pattern with improving MACD, but the stock has already reached its analyst price target with essentially zero upside remaining, a risk score below the minimum threshold at 2.7, and 14% short interest combined with a 4.60 put/call ratio signaling intense bearish conviction.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Growth High Roe→Stable
- Target Reached Extreme Options Risk→Stable
- Recovery Pattern Overbought Signal↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Valvoline Inc. (VVV) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5.
Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-31Recent Developments — Valvoline Inc.
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Jul 23, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: . | Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d). On July 22, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Valvoline Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Valvoline earnings test: Can pricing power offset rising costs? By Investing.com - Investing.com India — Investing.com India positive
- NEWS How The Valvoline (VVV) Investment Story Is Shifting With Conflicting Analyst Signals - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Valvoline (VVV) Q2 2026 Earnings Transcript - AOL.com — AOL.com neutral
- NEWS Valvoline (VVV) Tops Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (VVV) Valvoline Inc. Posts Q2 Adjusted EPS $0.41 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.34 - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
Generated 2026-07-31T02:43:38Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-07-23Item 5.02MEDIUM. | Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d). On July 22, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Valvoline Inc.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $39.24 (+2.2%), stop $36.11 (−6.3%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $39.24 (+2.2% upside). Target $39.24 (+2.2%), stop $36.11 (−6.3%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $36.11.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
Valvoline Inc. trades at a P/E of 53.6 (forward 19.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
21 analysts cover VVV with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $44.
What does Valvoline Inc. do?Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its...
Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to Valvoline Inc., its predecessors and its consolidated subsidiaries, except where the context indicates otherwise.