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VTMXCorporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta,Hold6.2·$34.40-0.72%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta is a Mexican industrial real estate developer with a wide economic moat designation, best-in-class operating margins, and a 40% margin of safety, but the stock has already surpassed its analyst target with -11.6% negative upside, consecutive earnings misses in 2 of 4 quarters, and free cash flow conversion at only 22% of net income — signaling accounting earnings are not translating to cash.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat Industrial ReitImproving
  • Negative Analyst Target AsymmetryStable
  • Earnings Miss Pattern Cash Flow GapImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta, (VTMX) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Real Estate · Real Estate - Development

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $34.40, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, develops, manages, operates industrial buildings and distribution facilities in Mexico. It offers rental income from operating leases, including reimbursable building services and energy... Read more

$34.40-8.8% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 4 Real Estate - Development
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.02%
IncomeYield2.39%Payout18.11%
Stop $32.94Target $34.51(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$36.90+7.3%4 analysts
$34.51our TP
$34.40price
$36.90mean
$30
$43

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $34.40, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 22, 202684d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.6
P/E (Fwd)16.6
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA16.8
Profit Mgn132.2%
ROE14.1%
Rev Growth16.8%
Beta0.26
Dividend2.39%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
1.9
Ps
3.1
Analyst Target
4.0
P Ocf
6.4
P/OCF: 17.1x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
GatesA.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.32%=MODERATEMomentum 6.4>=5.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $33.30Resistance $35.21

Price Targets

$33
$35
A.Upside-8.8%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-22 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VTMX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $34.40, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $34.51 (+0.3%), stop $32.94 (−4.4%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VTMX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $34.51 (-8.8% upside). Target $34.51 (+0.3%), stop $32.94 (−4.4%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Stop-loss: $32.94.

What are the risks of investing in VTMX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

Is VTMX overvalued or undervalued?

Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta, trades at a P/E of 7.6 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VTMX?

19 analysts cover VTMX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta, do?Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, develops, manages, operates...

Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, develops, manages, operates industrial buildings and distribution facilities in Mexico. It offers rental income from operating leases, including reimbursable building services and energy income. The company serves corporations in diverse industries, such as food and beverage, automotive, aerospace, medical, logistics, and plastics. Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

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