St. Joe Company (The) (JOE) Stock Analysis
Real Estate · Real Estate - Diversified
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $65.61 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Florida.
The St. Joe Company is a diversified real estate developer and operator concentrated in Northwest Florida, owning approximately 165,000 acres as of December 31, 2025 with approximately 87% in Florida's Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties. Revenue comes from residential homesite sales... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $65.61 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Florida. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNorthwest Florida10-K Item 1A: 'our business is especially sensitive to economic conditions in Northwest Florida, where our developments and assets are located'
- MEDIUMCustomerLatitude Margaritaville Watersound JV10-K Item 1A: 'our equity in income from the unconsolidated Latitude Margaritaville Watersound JV accounted for over 20% of our pre-tax income'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $65.61 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Florida. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $61.39. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $71.10 (+10.1% upside). Prior stop was $61.39. Stop-loss: $61.39.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Florida; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.7/10.
St. Joe Company (The) trades at a P/E of 33.5 (forward 587.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover JOE with a consensus score of 2.3/5.
What does St. Joe Company (The) do?The St. Joe Company is a diversified real estate developer and operator concentrated in Northwest Florida, owning...
The St. Joe Company is a diversified real estate developer and operator concentrated in Northwest Florida, owning approximately 165,000 acres as of December 31, 2025 with approximately 87% in Florida's Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties. Revenue comes from residential homesite sales to homebuilders, hospitality operations (hotels, golf, beach clubs), and commercial leasing (multi-family, retail, industrial). The Bay-Walton Sector Plan entitles over 170,000 residential units and 22 million sq ft of commercial space.