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JOESt. Joe Company (The)Sell4.6·$64.92-0.06%
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St. Joe Company (The) (JOE) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · Real Estate - Diversified

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $64.92: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties (87.0%).

St. Joe is a Florida-based real estate developer and operator with 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, concentrated in Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties. Revenue is earned through residential homesite sales to homebuilders, hospitality operations (hotels, Watersound Club golf,... Read more

$64.92-0.5% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10Peer score 5.2/10 · 149 Real Estate (sector)
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.06%
IncomeYield0.99%(5y avg 0.88%)Payout31.09%
Stop $62.30Target $64.62(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $64.92: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties (87.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties (87.0%)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak overall score: 4.6/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.6
P/E (Fwd)590.2
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA21.4
Profit Mgn21.6%
ROE14.9%
Rev Growth5.1%
Beta1.29
Dividend0.99%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C5.54bearish
IV49%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicFlorida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties87%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 87% of our real estate is located in Florida's Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties.'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyLatitude Margaritaville Watersound JV
    10-K Item 1A: 'our equity in income from the unconsolidated Latitude Margaritaville Watersound JV accounted for over 20% of our pre-tax income'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.8

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
5.4
P Ocf
6.1
P/OCF: 18.3x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $62.17Resistance $65.94

Price Targets

$62
$65
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts8
Consensus2.3/5
Avg Target

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JOE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $64.92: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties (87.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $62.30. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JOE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $64.62 (-0.5% upside). Prior stop was $62.30. Stop-loss: $62.30.

What are the risks of investing in JOE?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties (87.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.6/10.

Is JOE overvalued or undervalued?

St. Joe Company (The) trades at a P/E of 33.6 (forward 590.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about JOE?

8 analysts cover JOE with a consensus score of 2.3/5.

What does St. Joe Company (The) do?St. Joe is a Florida-based real estate developer and operator with 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, concentrated in...

St. Joe is a Florida-based real estate developer and operator with 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, concentrated in Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties. Revenue is earned through residential homesite sales to homebuilders, hospitality operations (hotels, Watersound Club golf, marinas), and commercial property development and leasing. Approximately 87% of real estate is in those three counties, with ~90% within 15 miles of the Gulf of America.

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