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VTEXVTEXHold6.0·$4.00-2.91%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

VTEX combines a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak with an asymmetry-gate-passing valuation and strong cash conversion, but moderate insider selling, rising leverage, and thin analyst coverage temper conviction in the 26% modeled upside.

Thesis pillars

  • Positive Asymmetry Clears Engine GateStable
  • Attractive Valuation Low PegStable
  • Excellent Cash Conversion And Piotroski ScoreStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

VTEX (VTEX) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: mixed signals — some dimensions strong, others weak.

VTEX, together with its subsidiaries, provides software-as-a-service digital commerce platform for enterprise brands and retailers. It provides VTEX platform that enables customers to execute commerce strategy, including building online stores, and integrating and managing... Read more

$4.00+32.7% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#59 of 125 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.59%
Stop $3.66Target $5.23(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$6.01+50.2%10 analysts
$5.23our TP
$4.00price
$6.01mean
$12

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: mixed signals — some dimensions strong, others weak. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202630d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Wide economic moat
Risks
No bear case signals

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.8
P/E (Fwd)14.9
Mkt Cap$704M
EV/EBITDA19.0
Profit Mgn9.4%
ROE9.7%
Rev Growth12.1%
Beta1.02
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C0.03bullish
IV71%elevated
Max Pain$3-37.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.6
Bollinger
3.6
Support Resistance
4.2
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)INSIDER 0.18%=MODERATEA.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 30d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Speculative
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $3.46Resistance $4.29

Price Targets

$4
$5
A.Upside+30.8%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (30d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VTEX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: mixed signals — some dimensions strong, others weak. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $5.23 (+30.8%), stop $3.66 (−9.3%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VTEX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.23 (+32.7% upside). Target $5.23 (+30.8%), stop $3.66 (−9.3%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $3.66.

Is VTEX overvalued or undervalued?

VTEX trades at a P/E of 31.8 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VTEX?

16 analysts cover VTEX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $6.

What does VTEX do?VTEX, together with its subsidiaries, provides software-as-a-service digital commerce platform for enterprise brands...

VTEX, together with its subsidiaries, provides software-as-a-service digital commerce platform for enterprise brands and retailers. It provides VTEX platform that enables customers to execute commerce strategy, including building online stores, and integrating and managing orders across channels, as well as creating marketplaces to sell products from third-party vendors. The company also offers customer support services; and optional services, such as project management, solutions architecting, and implementation consulting services. It serves its products to home appliances, apparel and accessories, beauty and health, electronics, grocery, department stores, and toys and hobbies, as well as home, furniture, and decoration markets. The company has operations in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, France, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Portugal, Romania, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. VTEX was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands.

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