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TKTeekay Corporation Ltd.Hold6.8·$11.79+10.12%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Teekay Corporation combines high quality, an attractive valuation, and strong growth with a flagged cyclical-trap warning, extreme insider selling, and a failed momentum gate, leading the engine to recommend reducing rather than adding to the position.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Growth BusinessStable
  • Cyclical Trap Valuation WarningStable
  • Extreme Insider SellingStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~62% (cyclical peak); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Teekay Corporation Ltd. provides crude oil marine transportation and other marine services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Tankers and Marine Services. It owns and operates crude oil and refined product tankers. The company also offers ship-to-ship support... Read more

$11.79+11.3% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#9 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield
Stop $10.25Target $12.26(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~62% (cyclical peak); Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~62% (cyclical peak)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.2
P/E (Fwd)24.2
Mkt Cap$907M
EV/EBITDA3.9
Profit Mgn17.5%
ROE
Rev Growth23.5%
Beta0.13
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV153%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesINSIDER 0.89%=EXTREMEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 5.3>=4.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $9.80Resistance $12.51

Price Targets

$10
$12
A.Upside+4.0%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 24x vs trail 9x (2.6x)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Insider activity: 0.89%=extreme

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~62% (cyclical peak); Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $12.26 (+4.0%), stop $10.25 (−15.0%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.26 (+11.3% upside). Target $12.26 (+4.0%), stop $10.25 (−15.0%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $10.25.

What are the risks of investing in TK?

Earnings expected to decline ~62% (cyclical peak); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is TK overvalued or undervalued?

Teekay Corporation Ltd. trades at a P/E of 9.2 (forward 24.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TK?

9 analysts cover TK with a consensus score of 2.0/5.

What does Teekay Corporation Ltd. do?Teekay Corporation Ltd. provides crude oil marine transportation and other marine services worldwide. The company...

Teekay Corporation Ltd. provides crude oil marine transportation and other marine services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Tankers and Marine Services. It owns and operates crude oil and refined product tankers. The company also offers ship-to-ship support services; tanker commercial management operation services; technical management; and operational and maintenance marine services. It operates a fleet of 34 double-hull tankers. It serves energy and utility companies, oil traders, oil consumers and petroleum product producers, government agencies, and various other entities that depend upon marine transportation. The company was formerly known as Teekay Corporation and changed its name to Teekay Corporation Ltd. in October 2024. Teekay Corporation Ltd. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Related stocks: TEN (Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd) · DHT (DHT Holdings, Inc.) · STNG (Scorpio Tankers Inc.) · INSW (International Seaways, Inc.) · LPG (Dorian LPG Ltd.)
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