Value
8.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.25
- ▸Attractively valued
TK · Why this verdict
Why Teekay Corporation (TK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bull case describes a high-quality business with attractive valuation and strong growth, backed by quality notes citing 17% margins and a strong Piotroski F-score of 7 out of 9, alongside 24% year-over-year growth. Bull case | Margins and growth should hold near their current strong levels and the Piotroski F-score should stay elevated over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bear case flags this as a potential cyclical trap, with earnings expected to decline roughly 62% from a cyclical peak, meaning current quality and growth metrics may reflect a cycle top rather than durable strength. | ||
The engine flags a cyclical-trap warning, showing the forward P/E at 24x versus a trailing P/E of 9x, a 2.6x expansion that signals expected earnings compression from a cyclical peak. Warnings | The forward-to-trailing P/E gap should narrow back toward parity as earnings normalize rather than collapse, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe value score remains high at 8.4 with a PEG ratio of 0.25, suggesting the market may not yet be pricing in the full extent of the flagged earnings decline. | ||
The engine's insider gate failed at an extreme severity level, with insiders selling $8,091,103 across seven transactions in the trailing 90 days and zero offsetting purchases. Engine gate (failed) | Insider selling should moderate from extreme severity and the insider gate should clear over the next 12 months if the selling does not foreshadow further deterioration. | →Stable |
| CounterAt 0.902% of market cap the selling is sizable but could reflect routine diversification rather than a negative view of the business, especially given the otherwise strong quality and growth metrics. | ||
The momentum gate failed at 2.9 against the 4.5 threshold, even as momentum notes frame the pullback at an RSI of 33 as a potential buying opportunity within the broader uptrend. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should recover back above the 4.5 gate threshold as the pullback resolves over the next several months. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice remains above its 200-day moving average, per the same notes, suggesting the longer-term uptrend has not broken down despite the near-term momentum failure. | ||
The bull case describes a high-quality business with attractive valuation and strong growth, backed by quality notes citing 17% margins and a strong Piotroski F-score of 7 out of 9, alongside 24% year-over-year growth.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Margins and growth should hold near their current strong levels and the Piotroski F-score should stay elevated over the next 12 months.
CounterThe bear case flags this as a potential cyclical trap, with earnings expected to decline roughly 62% from a cyclical peak, meaning current quality and growth metrics may reflect a cycle top rather than durable strength.
The engine flags a cyclical-trap warning, showing the forward P/E at 24x versus a trailing P/E of 9x, a 2.6x expansion that signals expected earnings compression from a cyclical peak.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The forward-to-trailing P/E gap should narrow back toward parity as earnings normalize rather than collapse, over the next 12 months.
CounterThe value score remains high at 8.4 with a PEG ratio of 0.25, suggesting the market may not yet be pricing in the full extent of the flagged earnings decline.
The engine's insider gate failed at an extreme severity level, with insiders selling $8,091,103 across seven transactions in the trailing 90 days and zero offsetting purchases.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Insider selling should moderate from extreme severity and the insider gate should clear over the next 12 months if the selling does not foreshadow further deterioration.
CounterAt 0.902% of market cap the selling is sizable but could reflect routine diversification rather than a negative view of the business, especially given the otherwise strong quality and growth metrics.
The momentum gate failed at 2.9 against the 4.5 threshold, even as momentum notes frame the pullback at an RSI of 33 as a potential buying opportunity within the broader uptrend.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover back above the 4.5 gate threshold as the pullback resolves over the next several months.
CounterPrice remains above its 200-day moving average, per the same notes, suggesting the longer-term uptrend has not broken down despite the near-term momentum failure.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Teekay Corporation combines high quality, an attractive valuation, and strong growth with a flagged cyclical-trap warning, extreme insider selling, and a failed momentum gate, leading the engine to recommend reducing rather than adding to the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.1/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 4.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.7 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.7 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.8 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.9 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $8,091,103 (0.892% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 6.1 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 5.5 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| put call | 8.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 153%
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C_QUALITY_VALUE_WAIT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- INSIDER:0.89%=EXTREME
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+value combination triggered the HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict: quality 8.1 and value 8.3 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 0.00 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Value at 8.3, and Quality at 8.1; the weakest are Insider at 4.3, Sentiment at 5.0, and Catalyst at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Growth Business
Trip ifPiotroski F-score falls below 5 out of 9 from the current 7.
- P2Cyclical Trap Valuation Warning
Trip ifForward-to-trailing P/E ratio compresses below 1.5x from the current 2.6x.
- P3Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling as a percentage of market cap falls below 0.3%, down from the current 0.902%.
- P4Failed Momentum Uptrend Pullback
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 2.9.