Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.6 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 34.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
TK · Why this verdict
Why Teekay Corporation (TK) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Teekay is a high-quality midstream business (27% ROE, 16% margins, wide moat, 44% growth) priced cheaply on PEG, but earnings are expected to fall about 79% from a cycle peak, insiders are selling, and momentum is weak.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business is high quality, with a 27% ROE, 16% margins, a wide economic moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a quality score of 7.8. Quality breakdown | ROE should stay above 20% and the Piotroski F-Score at 8 or higher over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality shows a warning with FCF/NI at 76%, and returns at a cycle peak may not be sustainable. | ||
Growth is strong at 44% YoY, with a PEG of 0.14, although the forward P/E of 34.2x is well above the trailing multiple. Valuation breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY, with PEG staying below 0.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA forward P/E of 34x against a trailing 7x implies earnings are expected to fall sharply, so the PEG is flattered by past growth. | ||
Earnings are expected to decline about 79% from a cycle peak, and the forward-to-trailing P/E gap of 4.8x flags the risk of a trap. Bear case | Actual earnings declines should come in smaller than 79%, with quarterly revenue staying above $320M. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPeak-cycle earnings often normalize lower than analysts expect, and the energy sector modifier of +1.2 could reverse. | ||
Insiders made 9 sales totaling $2,593,677 (0.201% of market cap) with no purchases in 90 days, while institutions are accumulating. Insider breakdown | Insider selling should slow and net insider flow should approach neutral over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe amount is small relative to market cap and may reflect routine diversification rather than a view on the business. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.8/10 with falling on-balance volume, though price remains above the 200-day average, and the put/call ratio is elevated at 1.92. Momentum breakdown | Price should break above $15.58 resistance and momentum should rise above 4.5 within two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDistribution volume with an elevated put/call ratio suggests sellers are in control and the range may break lower. | ||
The business is high quality, with a 27% ROE, 16% margins, a wide economic moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a quality score of 7.8.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should stay above 20% and the Piotroski F-Score at 8 or higher over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality shows a warning with FCF/NI at 76%, and returns at a cycle peak may not be sustainable.
Growth is strong at 44% YoY, with a PEG of 0.14, although the forward P/E of 34.2x is well above the trailing multiple.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY, with PEG staying below 0.5.
CounterA forward P/E of 34x against a trailing 7x implies earnings are expected to fall sharply, so the PEG is flattered by past growth.
Earnings are expected to decline about 79% from a cycle peak, and the forward-to-trailing P/E gap of 4.8x flags the risk of a trap.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Actual earnings declines should come in smaller than 79%, with quarterly revenue staying above $320M.
CounterPeak-cycle earnings often normalize lower than analysts expect, and the energy sector modifier of +1.2 could reverse.
Insiders made 9 sales totaling $2,593,677 (0.201% of market cap) with no purchases in 90 days, while institutions are accumulating.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling should slow and net insider flow should approach neutral over the next two quarters.
CounterThe amount is small relative to market cap and may reflect routine diversification rather than a view on the business.
Momentum is weak at 3.8/10 with falling on-balance volume, though price remains above the 200-day average, and the put/call ratio is elevated at 1.92.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should break above $15.58 resistance and momentum should rise above 4.5 within two quarters.
CounterDistribution volume with an elevated put/call ratio suggests sellers are in control and the range may break lower.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.0 |
| ROA | 7.5 |
| Gross margin | 6.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 7.9 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 5.7 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 27%
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 76% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 44% YoY
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,593,677 (0.202% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 5.1 |
| growth rank | 4.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.1 |
| support resistance | 5.7 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 8.4 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 81%
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.14, quality 7.8/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- INSIDER:0.20%=MODERATE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
7.4%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.8 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 0.00 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.8, and Quality at 7.8; the weakest are Sentiment at 5.0, Catalyst at 5.2, and Insider at 5.2. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Returns
Trip ifROE falls below 15% from the current 27%, or Piotroski F-Score drops below 6 from 9.
- P2Strong Growth Cheap Peg
Trip ifYoY growth falls below 10% from the current 44%.
- P3Expected Earnings Decline
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $300M from the recent $320M, or the earnings decline exceeds 79%.
- P4Insider Selling Pressure
Trip ifInsider sales exceed $10M in the next 90 days with no purchases.
- P5Weak Momentum Range Bound
Trip ifPrice falls below the $13.69 stop-loss, with momentum score under 3.0 from the current 3.8.