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NVGSNavigator Holdings Ltd.Sell6.9·$21.51
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Navigator Holdings trades at an attractive forward P/E of 13.1x and carries a Piotroski score of 7/9, but revenue declined 7% year-over-year, the company missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and news sentiment has turned negative, limiting near-term upside.

Thesis pillars

  • Value Metrics At Discount→Stable
  • Strong Piotroski Financial Health→Stable
  • Earnings Miss Revenue Decline↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Earnings in 5 days (2026-11-03). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $21.51, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Navigator Holdings Ltd. owns and operates a fleet of liquefied gas carriers worldwide. It engages in the international and regional seaborne transportation of petrochemical gases, liquefied petroleum gases, and ammonia for energy companies, industrial users, and commodity... Read more

$21.51+3.8% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#10 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield8.06%
IncomeYield1.30%Payout12.04%sustainable
Stop $20.00Analyst target $22.33(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst consensus$25.67+19.3%6 analysts
$22.33Analyst target
$21.51price
$25.67mean
$27

Sell if holding. At $21.51, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.8%
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.0
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn22.8%
ROE11.7%
Rev Growth29.5%
Beta0.48
Dividend1.30%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral
IV62%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
25 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.33Resistance $24.68

Price Targets

$20
$22
A.Upside+3.8%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVGS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $21.51, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $20.00. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.

What is the NVGS stock price target?

Analyst target: $22.33 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $20.00. Stop-loss: $20.00.

What are the risks of investing in NVGS?

Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is NVGS overvalued or undervalued?

Navigator Holdings Ltd. trades at a P/E of 10.0 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NVGS?

14 analysts cover NVGS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $26.

What does Navigator Holdings Ltd. do?Navigator Holdings Ltd. owns and operates a fleet of liquefied gas carriers worldwide. It engages in the international...

Navigator Holdings Ltd. owns and operates a fleet of liquefied gas carriers worldwide. It engages in the international and regional seaborne transportation of petrochemical gases, liquefied petroleum gases, and ammonia for energy companies, industrial users, and commodity traders. The company also provides ship shore infrastructure and consultancy services. It operates through a fleet of 57 semi- or fully-refrigerated liquefied gas carriers. Navigator Holdings Ltd. was formerly known as Isle of Man public limited company and changed its name to Navigator Holdings Ltd. in 2006. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

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