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THCTenet Healthcare CorporationHold6.3·$177.87+1.84%
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Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $177.87, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 managed care payers (69.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Arizona and Texas (outpatient centers) (74.0%).

Tenet Healthcare operates 50 hospitals in 8 states and holds interests in 533 ASCs and 26 surgical hospitals in 37 states (USPI), employing ~100,000 people. Managed care payers drove ~70% of Hospital Operations net patient service revenues; the top 10 managed care payers... Read more

$177.87+23.3% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#1 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield20.35%
Stop $165.37Target $219.26(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$243.62+37.0%21 analysts
$219.26our TP
$177.87price
$243.62mean
$288

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $177.87, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 managed care payers (69.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Arizona and Texas (outpatient centers) (74.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202636d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 39%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 managed care payers (69.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Arizona and Texas (outpatient centers) (74.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.1
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$15.0B
EV/EBITDA6.3
Profit Mgn7.9%
ROE30.3%
Rev Growth2.8%
Beta1.28
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.51bearish
IV71%elevated
Max Pain$65-63.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop-10 managed care payers69%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top 10 managed care payers generated 69% of our managed care net patient service revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicArizona and Texas (outpatient centers)74%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 74% of the outpatient centers in our Hospital Operations segment at December 31, 2025 were in Arizona and Texas'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Paola Arbour (EVP/CIO) to retire December 31, 2026; will remain part-time through April 1, 2028 for transition. No successor named for CIO role at time of announcement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-30Item 5.02MEDIUM
    R. Scott Ramsey (SVP/Controller/PAO) retirement moved to April 30, 2026; J. Michael Grooms (ex-Lifepoint Health SVP/CAO) appointed as successor SVP & Controller effective April 6, 2026; PAO effective May 1, 2026. Clean handoff.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.0>=5.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 36d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $157.58Resistance $199.08

Price Targets

$165
$219
A.Upside+23.3%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts27
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$244

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (36d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is THC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $177.87, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 managed care payers (69.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Arizona and Texas (outpatient centers) (74.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $219.26 (+23.3%), stop $165.37 (−7.6%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the THC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $219.26 (+23.3% upside). Target $219.26 (+23.3%), stop $165.37 (−7.6%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $165.37.

What are the risks of investing in THC?

Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 managed care payers (69.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Arizona and Texas (outpatient centers) (74.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.

Is THC overvalued or undervalued?

Tenet Healthcare Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.1 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about THC?

27 analysts cover THC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $244.

What does Tenet Healthcare Corporation do?Tenet Healthcare operates 50 hospitals in 8 states and holds interests in 533 ASCs and 26 surgical hospitals in 37...

Tenet Healthcare operates 50 hospitals in 8 states and holds interests in 533 ASCs and 26 surgical hospitals in 37 states (USPI), employing ~100,000 people. Managed care payers drove ~70% of Hospital Operations net patient service revenues; the top 10 managed care payers generated 69% of those managed care revenues in 2025. ~74% of outpatient centers were in Arizona and Texas.

Related stocks: AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc) · UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.) · ASTH (Astrana Health Inc.) · CON (Concentra Group Holdings Parent) · EHC (Encompass Health Corporation)
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