Smith & Wesson pairs a perfect earnings beat streak and strong cash conversion with weakening near-term momentum and a dividend the engine flags as a yield trap.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Beat Streak Strong Growth→Stable
- Excellent Cash Conversion→Stable
- Failed Momentum Negative Asymmetry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns, handcuffs, and suppressors under the Smith & Wesson and Gemtech brands at facilities in Maryville, Tennessee; Springfield, Massachusetts; and Houlton, Maine. The company... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-08Recent Developments — Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS U.S. Supreme Court Agrees To Hear Challenge To Laws Banning Assault Rifles — benzinga Jun 30, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-08T23:14:28Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop five commercial distributors46%10-K Item 1: 'Our top five commercial distributors in the United States accounted for a total of 46%, 45%, and 46% of our net sales for the fiscal years ended April 30, 2026, 2025, and 2024, respectively.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $17.06 (+11.0%), stop $14.29 (−7.6%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $17.06 (+11.0% upside). Target $17.06 (+11.0%), stop $14.29 (−7.6%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $14.29.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 37.5 (forward 46.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
8 analysts cover SWBI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $17.
What does Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. do?Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns,...
Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns, handcuffs, and suppressors under the Smith & Wesson and Gemtech brands at facilities in Maryville, Tennessee; Springfield, Massachusetts; and Houlton, Maine. The company sells primarily through two-step distribution to commercial distributors and retailers, with its top five U.S. commercial distributors accounting for 46% of net sales in fiscal 2026, and generated $114.2 million in cash from operations that year. Smith & Wesson also sells manufacturing services such as forging, machini