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SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (NaBuy Wait5.7·$15.00-2.28%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Sally Beauty Holdings has delivered 4 consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average positive surprise of nearly 12%, trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 6.1x, but faces a high short interest of 28% and thin upside to the analyst target that limit the near-term risk-reward.

Thesis pillars

  • Consistent Earnings Beat Track RecordStable
  • Attractive Valuation MultiplesStable
  • High Short Interest Squeeze RiskImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na (SBH) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Earnings in 2 days (2026-08-03). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $14.18. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $15.00. Engine's entry $14.18 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The company operates through two segments, Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group. The Sally Beauty Supply segment offers beauty products, including hair color and... Read more

$15.00-4.7% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#12 of 23 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield11.11%
Entry $14.18(support + ATR (held))Stop $13.02Target $15.48(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$16.40+9.3%5 analysts
$15.48our TP
$15.00price
$16.40mean
$13
$20

Wait for pullback to $14.18. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $15.00. Engine's entry $14.18 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 2d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 20262d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.5
P/E (Fwd)6.9
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA7.4
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE23.9%
Rev Growth2.3%
Beta1.02
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.10bullish
IV77%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of manufacturers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on a limited number of manufacturers for a significant percentage of the products we sell.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.1
Earnings Growth
4.6
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 2d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.97Resistance $15.80

Price Targets

$13
$14
$15
A.Upside-4.7%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.7% upside)
! Earnings in 2 days - binary event risk
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (2d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SBH stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $14.18. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $15.00. Engine's entry $14.18 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $15.48 (+3.2%), stop $13.02 (−15.2%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SBH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.48 (-4.7% upside). Target $15.48 (+3.2%), stop $13.02 (−15.2%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $13.02.

What are the risks of investing in SBH?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Is SBH overvalued or undervalued?

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na trades at a P/E of 8.5 (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SBH?

9 analysts cover SBH with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na do?Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The...

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The company operates through two segments, Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group. The Sally Beauty Supply segment offers beauty products, including hair color and care products, skin and nail care products, styling tools, and other beauty products for retail customers, salons, and salon professionals. This segment also provides products under Wella and L'Oreal brands, as well as Clairol, OPI, Wahl, and BaByliss Pro. The Beauty Systems Group segment offers professional beauty products, such as hair color and care products, skin and nail care products, styling tools, and other beauty items directly to salons, and licensed beauty professionals, and salon professionals through its professional-only stores, e-commerce platforms, and sales force, as well as through franchised stores under the Armstrong McCall store name. This segment also sells products under Paul Mitchell and Wella brands, including Matrix, Schwarzkopf, Kenra, Goldwell, Joico, Amika, and Moroccanoil. In addition, it operates company-operated stores, salon business consultants, digital platforms and franchised units in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Chile, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and Germany. Further, the company distributes its products through full-service/exclusive distributors and open-line distributors. Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

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