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SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (NaSell5.7·$13.85+2.14%
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Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na (SBH) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. At $13.85, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 3.0%.

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The company operates through two segments, Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group. The Sally Beauty Supply segment offers beauty products, including hair color and... Read more

$13.85+3.0% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield12.32%
Stop $12.89Target $14.27(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$16.40+18.4%5 analysts
$14.27our TP
$13.85price
$16.40mean
$13
$20

Sell if holding. At $13.85, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 3.0%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 49%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.0%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.7
P/E (Fwd)6.2
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE23.9%
Rev Growth2.3%
Beta1.04
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.09bearish
IV123%elevated
Max Pain$8-45.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.1
Gap
5.0
52w Position
5.5

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.1
Earnings Growth
4.6
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.54Resistance $13.88

Price Targets

$13
$14
A.Upside+3.0%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SBH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $13.85, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 3.0%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $12.89. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SBH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.27 (+3.0% upside). Prior stop was $12.89. Stop-loss: $12.89.

What are the risks of investing in SBH?

Thin upside margin: 3.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Weak growth.

Is SBH overvalued or undervalued?

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na trades at a P/E of 7.7 (forward 6.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SBH?

9 analysts cover SBH with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na do?Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The...

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The company operates through two segments, Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group. The Sally Beauty Supply segment offers beauty products, including hair color and care products, skin and nail care products, styling tools, and other beauty products for retail customers, salons, and salon professionals. This segment also provides products under Wella and L'Oreal brands, as well as Clairol, OPI, Wahl, and BaByliss Pro. The Beauty Systems Group segment offers professional beauty products, such as hair color and care products, skin and nail care products, styling tools, and other beauty items directly to salons, and licensed beauty professionals, and salon professionals through its professional-only stores, e-commerce platforms, and sales force, as well as through franchised stores under the Armstrong McCall store name. This segment also sells products under Paul Mitchell and Wella brands, including Matrix, Schwarzkopf, Kenra, Goldwell, Joico, Amika, and Moroccanoil. In addition, it operates company-operated stores, salon business consultants, digital platforms and franchised units in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Chile, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and Germany. Further, the company distributes its products through full-service/exclusive distributors and open-line distributors. Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

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