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RDNRadian Group Inc.Buy Wait7.0·$34.70+0.10%
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Radian Group Inc. (RDN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Wait for pullback to $33.54. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $34.70. Engine's entry $33.54 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Thin upside margin: 8.2%.

Radian Group is a leading U.S. private mortgage insurer, with $282.5B of insurance in force and $74.7B direct risk in force as of December 31, 2025, through its Mortgage Insurance segment. It earns premiums from lenders and borrowers on residential first-lien loans with LTV... Read more

$34.70+9.8% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#1 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.98%
IncomeYield2.94%(5y avg 3.04%)Payout23.78%sustainable
Entry $33.54(Ma200 Sticky)Stop $31.78Target $37.56(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$43.17+24.4%6 analysts
$37.56our TP
$34.70price
$43.17mean
$48

Wait for pullback to $33.54. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $34.70. Engine's entry $33.54 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Thin upside margin: 8.2%. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.2%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.1
P/E (Fwd)6.3
Mkt Cap$4.6B
EV/EBITDA5.8
Profit Mgn41.0%
ROE12.7%
Rev Growth58.8%
Beta0.74
Dividend2.94%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.41bearish
IV85%elevated
Max Pain$31-10.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02HIGH
    Effective February 12, 2026, Sumita Pandit (President and CFO) was involuntarily terminated. Daniel Kobell appointed Interim CFO; Robert J. Quigley elevated to Senior EVP Finance. No permanent CFO successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-03Item 5.02LOW
    Amendment to Feb 12, 2026 8-K: On March 30, 2026, Compensation Committee approved compensation for Interim CFO Daniel Kobell: $500K base salary, 100% STI target, $1M 2026 LTI target.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    On April 20, 2026, Eric R. Ray (Senior EVP, Chief Digital Officer) notified Company of decision to retire effective July 1, 2026. No disagreement cited. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.2>=4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $33.31Resistance $37.63

Price Targets

$32
$34
$38
A.Upside+8.2%
A.R:R1.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %1%
Max %2.1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RDN stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $33.54. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $34.70. Engine's entry $33.54 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Thin upside margin: 8.2%. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $37.56 (+8.2%), stop $31.78 (−9.2%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RDN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.56 (+9.8% upside). Target $37.56 (+8.2%), stop $31.78 (−9.2%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $31.78.

What are the risks of investing in RDN?

Thin upside margin: 8.2%.

Is RDN overvalued or undervalued?

Radian Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.1 (forward 6.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about RDN?

11 analysts cover RDN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Radian Group Inc. do?Radian Group is a leading U.S. private mortgage insurer, with $282.5B of insurance in force and $74.7B direct risk in...

Radian Group is a leading U.S. private mortgage insurer, with $282.5B of insurance in force and $74.7B direct risk in force as of December 31, 2025, through its Mortgage Insurance segment. It earns premiums from lenders and borrowers on residential first-lien loans with LTV >80%, subject to GSE PMIERs eligibility requirements. In February 2026, Radian acquired Inigo (a Lloyd's specialty insurer) to become a global multi-line specialty insurer, and is divesting its Mortgage Conduit, Title, and Real Estate Services businesses.

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