Parsons Corporation serves the US federal government as its dominant customer with strong free cash flow conversion of 122% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, but a confirmed death cross, 16% short interest, and revenue declining at -4% make this a technically challenged situation despite attractive analyst-implied upside of 25%.
Thesis pillars
- Federal Government Revenue Concentration→Stable
- Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- Strong Fcf Conversion Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Parsons Corporation (PSN) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Technology · Information Technology Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.54: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Parsons delivers technology and program management services across Federal Solutions (51% of revenue) and Critical Infrastructure (49%) segments, serving the U.S. military, intelligence community, and global infrastructure clients. The company generated $6.4 billion in fiscal... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.54: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/10 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.50, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 95d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Parsons Corporation
About Parsons Corporation
Parsons generated $6.4 billion in revenue during fiscal 2025, with Federal Solutions contributing 51% and Critical Infrastructure 49% of total segment revenue. Federal Solutions serves the U.S. military, intelligence, and civilian agencies across cyber, space, missile defense, and electronic warfare programs; Critical Infrastructure manages large-scale transportation, water, and urban development projects for governments and private sector owners globally. Total backlog stood at $8.7 billion at December 31, 2025, with a 61% overall contract win rate during the year.
Parsons earns the majority of its revenue from government contracts — time-and-materials, cost-plus, and fixed-price structures — across both segments. In Federal Solutions, the company serves agencies including the Department of War, Intelligence Community, Missile Defense Agency, and NASA, and holds the prime TEAMS Next contract at the MDA providing engineering and management support for integrated missile defense. Critical Infrastructure generates fees from program management, engineering design, and owner's-representative roles on complex projects for transportation authorities in Los Angeles, New York, Paris, and Ontario as well as Gulf Cooperation Council developers including the Royal Commission for Riyadh City and Dubai Municipality. Revenue concentration exists at the federal level: one customer set within the federal government exceeded 20% of total 2025 revenue, and the volume of work on a large confidential contract was significantly reduced in 2025 and is winding down.
Show full overview
Parsons faces structural dependence on U.S. federal government spending: the 10-K discloses that the U.S. government and its agencies represent substantially all of the revenue of the Federal Solutions segment, which accounted for 51% of fiscal 2025 revenue. Government contracts are subject to unilateral termination for convenience, non-renewal of options, and annual appropriations risk — Congress funds most programs year by year even when contract performance spans multiple years. Continuing resolutions and budget constraints in prior years have caused agencies to reduce or delay awards, and the 10-K identifies these mechanisms as recurring risks to both segments.
See also: Technology · Information Technology Services
From Parsons Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-31Recent Developments — Parsons Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Parsons shares drop 38% following $118 million in charges and lower 2026 outlook - TechStock² — TechStock² negative
- NEWS Why Shares of Parsons Are Plunging Today - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Stifel reiterates Parsons stock rating at Buy with $79 target - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS TD Cowen reiterates Buy on Parsons stock, keeps $72 target - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS William Blair reiterates Outperform on Parsons stock after guidance cut - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
Generated 2026-07-31T11:57:56Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerfederal government customer set10-K Item 1A: 'One customer set within the federal government exceeded 20% of Parsons' revenue during 2025'
- HIGHCustomerU.S. federal government10-K Item 1A: 'The U.S. federal government and its agencies...represents substantially all of the revenue of our Federal Solutions segment'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-17Item 5.02MEDIUMCHRO Susan Balaguer announced retirement effective April 1, 2026; succeeded by Soo Lagasse in same role effective April 1, 2026. Balaguer to remain in advisory role through May 2026 and receives $250,000 one-time cash bonus.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.54: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $40.15. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $52.28 (+21.1% upside). Prior stop was $40.15. Stop-loss: $40.15.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government; Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
Parsons Corporation trades at a P/E of 27.9 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover PSN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $60.
What does Parsons Corporation do?Parsons delivers technology and program management services across Federal Solutions (51% of revenue) and Critical...
Parsons delivers technology and program management services across Federal Solutions (51% of revenue) and Critical Infrastructure (49%) segments, serving the U.S. military, intelligence community, and global infrastructure clients. The company generated $6.4 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue and held an $8.7 billion backlog at year-end. A 99.6% re-compete win rate in 2025 reflects high contract retention.