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Parsons Corporation (PSN) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $51.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government; Concentration risk — Customer: single federal customer set exceeding 20% of revenue.

Parsons provides advanced technology and engineering solutions in two segments: Federal Solutions (cyber, space/missile defense, intelligence, aviation, electronic warfare) and Critical Infrastructure (transportation, water, urban development, EMEA), generating $6.4B revenues in... Read more

$51.08+27.1% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#33 of 35 Information Technology Services
Stop $47.92Target $64.90(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$74.60+46.0%10 analysts
$64.90our TP
$51.08price
$74.60mean
$90

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $51.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government; Concentration risk — Customer: single federal customer set exceeding 20% of revenue. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Analyst upside: 27%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government
Concentration risk — Customer: single federal customer set exceeding 20% of revenue
Weak overall score: 4.5/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.1
P/E (Fwd)13.7
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA12.3
Profit Mgn3.8%
ROE11.7%
Rev Growth-7.5%
Beta0.73
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.54bearish
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$35-31.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. federal government
    10-K Item 1A: 'The U.S. federal government and its agencies, including the military and intelligence community, collectively are our largest customer...it represents substantially all of the revenue of our Federal Solutions segment'
  • HIGHCustomersingle federal customer set exceeding 20% of revenue
    10-K Item 1A: 'One customer set within the federal government exceeded 20% of Parsons' revenue during 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOW
    CHRO Susan Balaguer announced retirement effective April 1, 2026; Soo Lagasse appointed as CHRO effective April 1, 2026. No disagreement cited. Board approved $250,000 cash bonus for Balaguer.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-26Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved $10M stock award to CEO Carey A. Smith (60% PSUs / 40% RSUs) for retention. RSUs vest ratably over 4 years; PSUs cliff vest end of 2029 based on rTSR vs. custom peer group.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -7.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.6
Earnings Growth
3.0
Declining revenue: -8%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.6
Quality Rank
3.5
Value Rank
3.5

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 96d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $49.40Resistance $59.00

Price Targets

$48
$65
A.Upside+27.1%
A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (96d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PSN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $51.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government; Concentration risk — Customer: single federal customer set exceeding 20% of revenue. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $47.92. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PSN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $64.90 (+27.1% upside). Prior stop was $47.92. Stop-loss: $47.92.

What are the risks of investing in PSN?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government; Concentration risk — Customer: single federal customer set exceeding 20% of revenue; Weak overall score: 4.5/10.

Is PSN overvalued or undervalued?

Parsons Corporation trades at a P/E of 24.1 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PSN?

18 analysts cover PSN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $75.

What does Parsons Corporation do?Parsons provides advanced technology and engineering solutions in two segments: Federal Solutions (cyber, space/missile...

Parsons provides advanced technology and engineering solutions in two segments: Federal Solutions (cyber, space/missile defense, intelligence, aviation, electronic warfare) and Critical Infrastructure (transportation, water, urban development, EMEA), generating $6.4B revenues in fiscal 2025. The U.S. federal government represents substantially all of the Federal Solutions segment's revenue; one confidential customer set exceeded 20% of total company revenue in 2025. The company had $8.7B in total backlog and a 99.6% re-compete win rate.

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