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Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.96 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Verra Mobility provides smart mobility tech—toll management, photo enforcement, and title/registration—across US, Australia, Europe, and Canada via Commercial Services (~45%, ~$436M), Government Solutions (~47%, ~$461M), and Parking Solutions (~8%) segments. NYCDOT accounted for... Read more

$14.96+44.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#1 of 35 Information Technology Services
Stop $14.18Target $21.63(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 8.5:1
Analyst target$24.86+66.2%7 analysts
$21.63our TP
$14.96price
$24.86mean
$30

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.96 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.4
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn14.0%
ROE49.0%
Rev Growth16.4%
Beta0.68
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.63bearish
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$5-66.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerNYCDOT18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'NYCDOT represented approximately 17.9% and 15.8% of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-3 Commercial Services customers35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Three of our Commercial Services customers collectively accounted for 34.8%...total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
7.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.6
Support Resistance
4.9
Bollinger
5.2
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 8.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.35Resistance $15.55

Price Targets

$14
$22
A.Upside+44.6%
A.R:R8.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VRRM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.96 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Prior stop was $14.18. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VRRM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.63 (+44.6% upside). Prior stop was $14.18. Stop-loss: $14.18.

What are the risks of investing in VRRM?

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is VRRM overvalued or undervalued?

Verra Mobility Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.4 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VRRM?

14 analysts cover VRRM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $25.

What does Verra Mobility Corporation do?Verra Mobility provides smart mobility tech—toll management, photo enforcement, and title/registration—across US,...

Verra Mobility provides smart mobility tech—toll management, photo enforcement, and title/registration—across US, Australia, Europe, and Canada via Commercial Services (~45%, ~$436M), Government Solutions (~47%, ~$461M), and Parking Solutions (~8%) segments. NYCDOT accounted for 17.9% of 2025 total revenues.

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