Oppenheimer Holdings shows strong growth and a technical breakout with a perfect earnings beat streak, but a wide forward-to-trailing P/E gap and an expected 69% earnings decline point to a cyclical peak that could quickly unwind the recent strength.
Thesis pillars
- Forward Trailing Pe Valuation Gap→Stable
- Expected Earnings Decline Risk→Stable
- Revenue Growth Technical Breakout→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Oppenheimer Holdings, Inc. (OPY) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Financial Services · Capital Markets
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $112.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~69% (cyclical peak); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.
Oppenheimer Holdings, through its Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. broker-dealer subsidiary, is a middle-market investment bank and full-service broker-dealer offering wealth management, capital markets, and asset management services from 88 U.S. offices plus operations in the United... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $112.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~69% (cyclical peak); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 23d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliotop two margin-loan customer accounts48%10-K Item 1A: 'our two largest customer accounts collectively comprise approximately 47.8% of the margin loans as of December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMcounterpartya global systemically important bank10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial majority of our cash is held with a large, global systemically important bank, often in balances that exceed the current FDIC insurance limits.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $112.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~69% (cyclical peak); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $116.23 (+3.4%), stop $104.50 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $116.23 (+3.4% upside). Target $116.23 (+3.4%), stop $104.50 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $104.50.
Earnings expected to decline ~69% (cyclical peak); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.
Oppenheimer Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.8 (forward 45.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
5 analysts cover OPY with a consensus score of 4.2/5.
What does Oppenheimer Holdings, Inc. do?Oppenheimer Holdings, through its Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. broker-dealer subsidiary, is a middle-market investment bank...
Oppenheimer Holdings, through its Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. broker-dealer subsidiary, is a middle-market investment bank and full-service broker-dealer offering wealth management, capital markets, and asset management services from 88 U.S. offices plus operations in the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, and Israel. Wealth Management serves clients through 924 financial advisors, holding $143.3 billion in client assets under administration, while Oppenheimer Asset Management manages $55.2 billion in fee-based AUM.