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MKTXMarketAxess Holdings, Inc.Buy Wait6.2·$121.59+0.58%
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MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. (MKTX) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Wait for pullback to $115.30. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum, recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $121.59. Engine's entry $115.30 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

MarketAxess operates leading electronic fixed-income trading platforms serving approximately 2,100 institutional investor and broker-dealer clients across roughly 90 countries. In 2025, 86.8% of revenues came from commissions; U.S. high-grade corporate bonds represent ~37.8% of... Read more

$121.59+32.8% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#10 of 40 Capital Markets
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-5.91%
IncomeYield2.58%(5y avg 1.20%)Payout36.26%sustainable
Entry $115.30(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $107.28Target $156.13(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.2:1Setup A.R:R 5.0:1
Analyst target$179.45+47.6%11 analysts
$156.13our TP
$121.59price
$179.45mean
$250

Wait for pullback to $115.30. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum, recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $121.59. Engine's entry $115.30 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/11 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.35, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.63)
High-quality business
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.3
P/E (Fwd)13.6
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA9.4
Profit Mgn35.5%
ROE24.3%
Rev Growth11.9%
Beta0.85
Dividend2.58%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.18bullish
IV69%elevated
Max Pain$180+48.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductU.S. high-grade corporate bonds38%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We currently derive approximately 37.8% of our revenues from secondary trading in U.S. high-grade corporate bonds.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-17Item 5.02LOW
    Board committee assignments for directors Douglas Cifu (Compensation/Talent and Finance Committees) and Kenneth Schiciano (Audit Committee) effective May 1, 2026. Amendment to Jan 26, 2026 8-K election announcement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Naineshkumar Panchal (CIO) service ending April 1, 2026. New Chief Technology Officer identified via comprehensive search but identity not yet disclosed; to be announced in a press release. No successor named in this filing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.8>=4.5A.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.35NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(4)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $113.29Resistance $144.58

Price Targets

$107
$115
$156
A.Upside+28.4%
A.R:R4.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)5.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.2%
Max %2.4%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MKTX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $115.30. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum, recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $121.59. Engine's entry $115.30 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $156.13 (+28.4%), stop $107.28 (−13.3%), Setup A.R:R 5.0:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MKTX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $156.13 (+32.8% upside). Target $156.13 (+28.4%), stop $107.28 (−13.3%), Setup A.R:R 5.0:1. Stop-loss: $107.28.

What are the risks of investing in MKTX?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MKTX overvalued or undervalued?

MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MKTX?

20 analysts cover MKTX with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $179.

What does MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. do?MarketAxess operates leading electronic fixed-income trading platforms serving approximately 2,100 institutional...

MarketAxess operates leading electronic fixed-income trading platforms serving approximately 2,100 institutional investor and broker-dealer clients across roughly 90 countries. In 2025, 86.8% of revenues came from commissions; U.S. high-grade corporate bonds represent ~37.8% of revenues alone. International revenues grew to 32.8% of total in 2025.

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