Oppenheimer Holdings shows strong growth and a technical breakout with a perfect earnings beat streak, but a wide forward-to-trailing P/E gap and an expected 69% earnings decline point to a cyclical peak that could quickly unwind the recent strength.
Thesis pillars
- Forward Trailing Pe Valuation Gap↑Improving
- Expected Earnings Decline Risk↑Improving
- Revenue Growth Technical Breakout→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Oppenheimer Holdings, Inc. (OPY) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Capital Markets
Wait for pullback to $100.36. BUY gates pass at $106.88, but earnings expected to decline ~71% (cyclical peak) and v7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $100.36 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
Oppenheimer Holdings, through its Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. broker-dealer subsidiary, is a middle-market investment bank and full-service broker-dealer offering wealth management, capital markets, and asset management services from 88 U.S. offices plus operations in the United... Read more
Wait for pullback to $100.36. BUY gates pass at $106.88, but earnings expected to decline ~71% (cyclical peak) and v7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $100.36 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Oppenheimer Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Oppenheimer Holdings Inc (OPY) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS OPY Q1 2025 Earnings: EPS of $2.72 Amidst Modest Market Headwinds - ROA Comparison - po-news-eg.net — po-news-eg.net positive
- NEWS Simply Wall St values Oppenheimer stock at 11.1 times earnings - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de neutral
- NEWS Oppenheimer Makes Big Bet On WULF With 45% Stake Increase — Retail Traders Lookout For A Short Squeeze - Stocktwits — Stocktwits positive
- NEWS Oppenheimer Makes Big Bet On WULF With 45% Stake Increase — Retail Traders Lookout For A Short Squeeze - stocktwits.com — stocktwits.com neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliotop two margin-loan customer accounts48%10-K Item 1A: 'our two largest customer accounts collectively comprise approximately 47.8% of the margin loans as of December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMcounterpartya global systemically important bank10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial majority of our cash is held with a large, global systemically important bank, often in balances that exceed the current FDIC insurance limits.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $100.36. BUY gates pass at $106.88, but earnings expected to decline ~71% (cyclical peak) and v7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $100.36 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Target $122.97 (+15.1%), stop $95.55 (−11.9%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $122.97 (+22.5% upside). Target $122.97 (+15.1%), stop $95.55 (−11.9%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $95.55.
Earnings expected to decline ~71% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.
Oppenheimer Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 41.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
5 analysts cover OPY with a consensus score of 4.2/5.
What does Oppenheimer Holdings, Inc. do?Oppenheimer Holdings, through its Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. broker-dealer subsidiary, is a middle-market investment bank...
Oppenheimer Holdings, through its Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. broker-dealer subsidiary, is a middle-market investment bank and full-service broker-dealer offering wealth management, capital markets, and asset management services from 88 U.S. offices plus operations in the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, and Israel. Wealth Management serves clients through 924 financial advisors, holding $143.3 billion in client assets under administration, while Oppenheimer Asset Management manages $55.2 billion in fee-based AUM.