Nutanix has strong free cash flow conversion at 229% of net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, but is in a confirmed downtrend with a death cross hard block triggered, momentum at a very low 1.7, and a Supermicro supplier concentration risk, making the near-term risk profile unfavorable despite good fundamental scores.
Thesis pillars
- Supermicro Supplier Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Strong Fcf Conversion Piotroski→Stable
- Death Cross Severe Momentum Failure→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $67.71 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Supermicro.
Nutanix delivers a unified cloud software platform enabling organizations to run applications and manage data across private data centers, edge environments, and public clouds on a subscription basis. The company serves over 29,000 end customers; top two distributors represented... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $67.71 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Supermicro. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-23Recent Developments — Nutanix, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nutanix (NTNX) Q3 2026 Earnings Transcript - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Nutanix (NTNX) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Nutanix (NASDAQ:NTNX) Exceeds Q1 CY2026 Expectations - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (NTNX) Nutanix, Inc. Posts Q3 Adjusted EPS $0.47 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.36 - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (NTNX) Nutanix, Inc. Posts Q3 Adjusted EPS $0.47 per Share, Vs. FactSet Est of $0.36 - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
Generated 2026-08-23T03:21:57Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop two distributors41%10-K Item 1: 'Our top two distributors to our end customers represented 48%, 47% and 41% of our total revenue for fiscal 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively.'
- HIGHSupplierSupermicro10-K Item 1: 'The Nutanix-branded NX series hardware platforms are manufactured by Super Micro Computer, Inc. ("Supermicro").'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $67.71 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Supermicro. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $63.30. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $77.79 (-17.9% upside). Prior stop was $63.30. Stop-loss: $63.30.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Supermicro; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 4 days (event risk).
Nutanix, Inc. trades at a P/E of 69.7 (forward 30.8). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover NTNX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $62.
What does Nutanix, Inc. do?Nutanix delivers a unified cloud software platform enabling organizations to run applications and manage data across...
Nutanix delivers a unified cloud software platform enabling organizations to run applications and manage data across private data centers, edge environments, and public clouds on a subscription basis. The company serves over 29,000 end customers; top two distributors represented 41% of fiscal 2025 revenue. Software runs on OEM hardware from Cisco, Dell, HPE, Fujitsu, and Lenovo.