Skip to main content
NFBKNorthfield Bancorp, Inc.Sell6.2·$14.66-1.21%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Northfield Bancorp combines strong growth, a cheap forward multiple, and a clean earnings beat streak with a quality score just below the engine's floor and an unsafe dividend yield flag after the stock reached its analyst target.

Thesis pillars

  • Cheap Forward MultipleStable
  • Quality Just Below Floor Despite StrengthStable
  • Strong Revenue GrowthStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (NFBK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.66: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Northfield Bancorp is the holding company for Northfield Bank, a federally chartered savings bank with 37 branches across Staten Island, Brooklyn, and four New Jersey counties, ranking sixth in Staten Island deposit market share (9.64%) as of June 2025. The bank originates... Read more

$14.66+0.3% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#83 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.52%(5y avg 4.20%)Payout400.00%at-risk
Stop $14.16Target $14.71(resistance)A.R:R -3.2:1
Analyst target$14.50-1.1%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.66: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Northfield Bancorp, Inc.

About Northfield Bancorp, Inc.

Northfield Bancorp's Northfield Bank subsidiary operates 37 full-service branches across Staten Island, Brooklyn, and Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex and Union counties in New Jersey, ranking sixth among 16 FDIC-insured institutions in Staten Island deposit market share at 9.64% as of June 30, 2025. On January 31, 2026, the company entered a merger agreement under which Northfield will combine with Columbia Financial, Inc. following Columbia Bank MHC's mutual-to-stock conversion, with shareholders electing either 1.425 to 1.465 shares of the surviving holding company or $14.25 to $14.65 in cash per share, subject to a final independent valuation. The merger, expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, would fold Northfield Bank into Columbia Bank as the surviving institution.

Northfield Bank earns net interest income primarily by originating multifamily and commercial real estate loans, construction and land loans, and commercial and industrial loans, funded through transaction and savings deposits, FHLBNY advances and broker repurchase agreements. The bank is regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency rather than a state banking department, reflecting its status as a federally chartered savings bank, and owns a real estate investment trust subsidiary, NSB Realty Trust, that holds a portion of its mortgage loan portfolio. Northfield competes against large money-center and regional banks, community banks, credit unions and fintech companies across its New York and New Jersey markets, noting that fintech competitors benefit from lower regulatory burdens and stronger operating efficiencies in areas like deposit gathering and online lending.

Show full overview

Northfield's pending merger with Columbia Financial carries execution risk tied to a variable pricing mechanism: the final exchange ratio and cash consideration depend on an independent appraisal of Columbia's pro forma market value conducted immediately before the mutual-to-stock conversion closes, meaning Northfield shareholders will not know the precise per-share consideration until shortly before the deal completes. The merger also remains subject to depositor, stockholder and regulatory approvals with an expected third-quarter-2026 close, and the 10-K's forward-looking-statement disclosures specifically flag the risk that required approvals could impose conditions adversely affecting the combined company or delay realization of anticipated merger benefits.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From Northfield Bancorp, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202615d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-15.9% upside)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)113.9
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$619M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn3.1%
ROE0.7%
Rev Growth24.5%
Beta0.70
Dividend3.52%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV131%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roa
0.1
Roe
0.2
Net Margin
1.5
Moat
5.4
Piotroski F
8.9
Operating Margin
10.0
No competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.2
Value Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
7.3
GatesA.R:R -3.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 15d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.31Resistance $15.01

Price Targets

$14
$15
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R-3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (15d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NFBK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.66: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $14.16. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NFBK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.71 (+0.3% upside). Prior stop was $14.16. Stop-loss: $14.16.

What are the risks of investing in NFBK?

Target reached (-15.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is NFBK overvalued or undervalued?

Northfield Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 113.9 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NFBK?

6 analysts cover NFBK with a consensus score of 2.2/5. Average price target: $15.

What does Northfield Bancorp, Inc. do?Northfield Bancorp is the holding company for Northfield Bank, a federally chartered savings bank with 37 branches...

Northfield Bancorp is the holding company for Northfield Bank, a federally chartered savings bank with 37 branches across Staten Island, Brooklyn, and four New Jersey counties, ranking sixth in Staten Island deposit market share (9.64%) as of June 2025. The bank originates multifamily, commercial real estate, construction, commercial and industrial, and residential loans funded through retail deposits, FHLB advances and repurchase agreements. On January 31, 2026, Northfield agreed to merge into Columbia Financial, Inc. in a stock-and-cash transaction expected to close in the third quarter of 2

Related stocks: BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.) · COFS (ChoiceOne Financial Services, I) · AROW (Arrow Financial Corporation) · CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) · NBN (Northeast Bank)
Home Stocks NFBK

Latest news

No recent news