Value
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
NFBK · Why this verdict
Why Northfield Bancorp (NFBK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.9x with a low PEG of 0.17, screening as attractively valued given its growth. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple should re-rate higher toward peer averages over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock has already reached its analyst price target (-16.7% upside flag), suggesting limited near-term re-rating room. | ||
Quality scores 3.7 out of 10, just below the engine's 4.0 floor, despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Quality breakdown | Quality score should recover above 4.0 over the next 12 months given the strong Piotroski reading. | →Stable |
| CounterA 3.7 score just shy of the 4.0 floor suggests the quality gap is narrow and could close quickly with modest improvement, unlike deeply sub-floor names. | ||
Northfield Bancorp posted 24% YoY growth, a strong pace for a regional bank. Growth breakdown | Growth should remain in double digits over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| Counter24% growth for a small regional bank can reflect one-time M&A or balance-sheet expansion rather than durable organic momentum. | ||
The bank has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of 8.5% and zero misses. Earnings | The beat streak should continue over the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA clean beat streak can create a high bar that becomes harder to clear as estimates rise to match performance. | ||
The catalyst assessment flags a yield trap warning alongside the strong earnings track record — the dividend yield is high but considered unsafe. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety should improve without a cut over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA yield-trap flag can be a conservative screen and doesn't always predict an actual distribution cut, especially alongside a strong earnings record. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.9x with a low PEG of 0.17, screening as attractively valued given its growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple should re-rate higher toward peer averages over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock has already reached its analyst price target (-16.7% upside flag), suggesting limited near-term re-rating room.
Quality scores 3.7 out of 10, just below the engine's 4.0 floor, despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should recover above 4.0 over the next 12 months given the strong Piotroski reading.
CounterA 3.7 score just shy of the 4.0 floor suggests the quality gap is narrow and could close quickly with modest improvement, unlike deeply sub-floor names.
Northfield Bancorp posted 24% YoY growth, a strong pace for a regional bank.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth should remain in double digits over the next 12 months.
Counter24% growth for a small regional bank can reflect one-time M&A or balance-sheet expansion rather than durable organic momentum.
The bank has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of 8.5% and zero misses.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue over the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterA clean beat streak can create a high bar that becomes harder to clear as estimates rise to match performance.
The catalyst assessment flags a yield trap warning alongside the strong earnings track record — the dividend yield is high but considered unsafe.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety should improve without a cut over the next 12 months.
CounterA yield-trap flag can be a conservative screen and doesn't always predict an actual distribution cut, especially alongside a strong earnings record.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Northfield Bancorp combines strong growth, a cheap forward multiple, and a clean earnings beat streak with a quality score just below the engine's floor and an unsafe dividend yield flag after the stock reached its analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.2 |
| ROA | 0.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 9.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 0.2 |
| growth rank | 7.3 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.9 |
| support resistance | 5.0 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
- ▸High IV: 131%
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 3.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-3.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-3.19
Upside
-15.9%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 15d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 9.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-3.2=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.3, Insider at 7.5, and Value at 7.3; the weakest are Quality at 3.7, Peer rank at 3.8, and Sentiment at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Just Below Floor Despite Strength
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0, deepening the current 3.7 sub-floor read.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY, reversing the current 24% pace.
- P3Cheap Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 9.9x.
- P4Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls below 50% over the next 4 reported quarters.
- P5Unsafe Dividend Yield Trap
Trip ifThe dividend is cut by more than 10%, confirming the unsafe-yield read.