loanDepot trades at a deep discount and is attempting a technical recovery, but a confirmed downtrend, a three-quarter earnings-miss streak, extreme put/call hedging, and sub-floor quality argue the discount reflects real distress rather than a bargain.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Discount→Stable
- Persistent Earnings Misses→Stable
- Sub Floor Quality No Moat→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
loanDepot, Inc. (LDI) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Mortgage Finance
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $1.12: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 51.00; Below-average business quality.
loanDepot is a technology-enabled, non-bank residential mortgage originator and servicer, ranked the fifth largest retail-focused non-bank mortgage originator and ninth largest overall retail originator in 2025. The company originates conventional agency-conforming, jumbo,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $1.12: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 51.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About loanDepot, Inc.
About loanDepot, Inc.
loanDepot originated mortgages as the fifth largest retail-focused non-bank originator in the United States during 2025, servicing 448,261 customers and $119.1 billion in unpaid principal balance as of December 31, 2025, of which 54% were Agency MSRs and 36% government MSRs. The company's loan originations and servicing rights are concentrated in California, Texas and Florida, with additional servicing concentration in Arizona, Virginia and New York.
loanDepot generates revenue from originating, selling and servicing conventional agency-conforming, jumbo, FHA/VA and home equity loans across three channels -- a digital consumer-direct platform for refinancing, in-market loan officers focused on purchase originations, and joint ventures with national homebuilders -- supported by its proprietary mello technology platform. The company retained servicing rights on 65% of loans sold in 2025, up from 63% in 2024, and reported a 68% organic refinance recapture rate, converting its servicing book into repeat origination volume at lower marketing cost. Liquidity is funded through eleven credit facilities providing $4.2 billion of loan-funding capacity, of which $2.9 billion was drawn at year-end 2025, supplemented by securitization vehicles such as the $500 million Mello Warehouse Securitization Trust established in April 2026.
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loanDepot's 10-K identifies a specific vulnerability in its state concentration: California, Texas and Florida account for a substantial share of both loan originations and the servicing portfolio, and all three states have seen homeowners insurance become sharply more expensive and harder to obtain due to wildfires and hurricanes -- a dynamic the company says has already contributed to higher delinquency rates than in other states. Because a substantial portion of loanDepot's $119.1 billion servicing book sits in these markets, any regional home-price decline or insurance-driven affordability shock would fall disproportionately on the value of its servicing rights rather than being diversified away nationally.
See also: Financial Services · Mortgage Finance
From loanDepot, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Texas and Florida10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial portion of our aggregate mortgage loan origination is secured by properties concentrated in the states of California, Texas and Florida'
- HIGHloan_portfolioAgency MSRs54%10-K Item 1: 'Our servicing portfolio is comprised of 54% Agency MSRs associated with mortgage loans that conform to the guidelines set forth by GSEs, and 36% government MSRs'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-30Item 1.01LOWloanDepot subsidiaries entered into a new $500 million Mello Warehouse Securitization Trust indenture (2026-1), issuing notes backed by a revolving warehouse line of credit secured by newly originated GSE-conforming and jumbo residential mortgages. Routine securitization funding facility.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Volatile — 7.8% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -6.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $1.12: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 51.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $1.06. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $1.53 (+39.1% upside). Prior stop was $1.06. Stop-loss: $1.06.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Agency MSRs (54.0%); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).
loanDepot, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 5.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover LDI with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $2.
What does loanDepot, Inc. do?loanDepot is a technology-enabled, non-bank residential mortgage originator and servicer, ranked the fifth largest...
loanDepot is a technology-enabled, non-bank residential mortgage originator and servicer, ranked the fifth largest retail-focused non-bank mortgage originator and ninth largest overall retail originator in 2025. The company originates conventional agency-conforming, jumbo, FHA/VA and home equity loans through consumer-direct, in-market loan officer and joint-venture channels, and serviced 448,261 customers with $119.1 billion in unpaid principal balance as of December 31, 2025, with mortgage origination concentrated in California, Texas and Florida.